The Green Bay Packers (3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS) head to the nation’s Capitol to take on the Washington Commanders (2-4 SU, and ATS). These teams met in Week 7 last season as well, with the Packers winning 24-10 in Green Bay. However this is not the same Packers team as a year ago, and the stats that day tell an entirely different story than the final score. In their meeting last year, Washington, then known as simply “the Football Team” (which I kind of liked and think they should have kept, but I digress) dominated the stat sheet, failing to finish drives while moving the ball at will. Washington out-gained the Packers by 126 yards, out-gained the Packers by a half-yard per play, ran for 197 yards on the ground for an average of nearly 7 yards per rush. One thing that hasn’t changed from last year is the Packers run defense. They are dead last according to Football Outsiders’ rush DVOA metric, and have allowed over 135 yards per game on 5 yards per carry.
The other side of the ball is not favorable either, as their lack of weapons and explosiveness allowed them to be defeated at home last week by a Jets team that completed just 10 passes for under 100 yards. The Packers are simply a bottom-tier roster being somewhat propped up by a top-tier quarterback.
Let’s get to the Commanders quickly. Most teams that lose their quarterback get downgraded significantly when they turn to their backup. Welp, not in this case. Wentz is a bottom-10 starting QB, and is now on his 3rd team in 3 years. His replacement, Taylor Heinicke, is one of the better backups in the league, and has played well in limited showing. He also went 25-37 with 268 yards vs the Packers last year, while also running for 95 yards, and led a major upset over the Buccaneers later in the season. The Packers, in their current state, are not good enough to be laying points on the road to many teams, and I will gladly grab the +4.5 with the Commanders. Expect a close game, and possibly an outright upset.