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Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills prediction and betting odds

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Mike Tomlin's Magic: Steelers Scrape In, Can They Upset the Super Bowl-Favored Bills?

If you were wise and read our Super Bowl winners page, you’d have seen us tip the Buffalo Bills at a HUGE price just over a month ago. The Bills were in our Dark Horses section but they do not fit that description anymore, streaking to a divisional title and the AFC’s second seed.

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was sacked in mid-November and the Bills have barely looked back. Josh Allen has been outstanding (nothing new there), orchestrating a five-game winning run. Momentum built.

Allen has plenty of options at his disposal. Stefon Diggs remains one of the best receivers in the league, Dawson Knox and first-round pick Dalton Kincaid have excelled at Tight End, while James Cook has had a breakout year, doing it on the ground and in the air.

For Pittsburgh, it’s been a journey too. One that makes you scratch your head as to how they’ve even reached this point. It’s incredible how Mike Tomlin manages to drag this team to the Playoffs every damn season – that’s now EIGHTEEN seasons going .500 or above. Mind blown.

He did it this year with a quarterback room consisting of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph. And it’s gonna be the latter lining up against the Bills. To be fair to Rudolph, he’s impressed in his last three starts and isn’t afraid to air it out. That’s where the talented George Pickens will be waiting.

Pittsburgh have a mean defensive line too. Josh Allen has said as much, saying the Bills “aren’t in the clear” despite one VERY notable absence. Scroll down to find out who…

Buffalo Bills Team News & Injuries

Buffalo have had their fair share of injury problems throughout the year, but traveled to Miami in good shape for the final game of the regular season. A bruising battle for the AFC East claimed its victims however, with a handful of players likely to be day-to-day ahead of Sunday’s showdown.

WR Gabe Davis and cornerback Rasul Douglas have knee injuries, while linebacker Tyrel Dodson hopes to return from a shoulder issue. Davis had three 100-yard games this season, but has only been targeted more than three times once in the last five outings. Regardless, the pass-catcher is a deep threat and his absence could be felt.
On the other side of the ball, Douglas has five interceptions on the season – including two multiple-pick games against the Jets and Patriots.

Steelers Team News & Injuries

For Pittsburgh, one absentee stands out. TJ Watt. The 2021 Defensive Player of the Year has had another stellar season, leading the league in sacks (19) for the third time. He will be a huge miss, but there is better news when it comes to Minkah Fitzpatrick. An All-Pro last season, the safety looks set to return after a three-game absence. Kenny Pickett started the season at Quarterback but won’t reclaim his place, despite being cleared to play following ankle surgery. January is still Rudolph season.

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Form Guide

Season Record

Pittsburgh Steelers: 10-7 (2nd in the AFC North)

Buffalo Bills: 11-6 (1st in the AFC East)

Previous Meeting

Bills 38-3 Steelers (Week 5, last season)

Final Five

Steelers: LLWWW

Bills: WWWWW

FlashPicks prediction

Buffalo Bills. One of our easier picks on Wildcard Weekend. Both teams come into the postseason on a winning streak, but the Bills’ extra quality should shine through.

Mike Tomlin has worked his magic again this season, but it ends here. Even if they do make life hard for the home team.


Moneyline: Bills (-500)

Spread: Steelers +9.5 (+100)

Total: Under 36 (-110)

Odds and spreads correct as of 01/10/2024

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