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@RyanPropz AFC Championship Best Bet - 1/30


Cincinnati Bengals (10-7) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

Last week when the Bengals played, I had a longest completion prop article. We’re going back to it…sort of. I went for Joe Burrow last week, and while it hit I am gonna switch sides and look at Patrick Mahomes.

Prop Analysis

Cincinnati’s defense has done a solid job preventing 40+ yard passes this season, as they have only allowed 8 of them. While that is worth noting, it is encouraging that they have allowed the 3rd most 20+ yard passes. They are getting beat deep often but do a solid job controlling YAC (yards after catch). That is where I like Kansas City to come in and change that. While they have the fastest player in the NFL, he's not the only speedster that lines up outside. Mecole Hardman (4.33 40 dash) and Byron Pringle (4.46 40 yard dash) are both threats to take one to the house every time they touch it. Kelce can also get it done across the middle. 

Patrick has now hit this in 9 of his last 10 games including 8 straight. He recorded a 52 yard pass vs Cinn when they matched up on January 2nd. Patrick has also hit this in 9 of his 11 career playoff games. I am backing Patrick to do this yet again on Sunday!

@RyanPropz Best Bet

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Patrick Mahomes longest completion over 37.5 yards @ -115
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