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$FML's +321 NHL Parlay of the Week - 2/10

$FML has a three-player +321 NHL parlay for Friday night's NHL slate - let's do it!

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Leg One: Morgan Reilly over 1.5 Shots (-170)

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Columbus Blue Jackets

To start the party… I’m backing the tried-and-true strategy that is: defensemen shots on goal (SOG) props vs. Columbus! They’re leaking the 2nd most shots this season (35.0/game), of which: 31.7% are flying off the sticks of defensemen (highest % in NHL; +3.7% vs. league average). This positional data is consistent with last year and not a fluke. It’s a function of their defensive scheme, which pushes shot attempts to the outside. Reilly has yet to face the Jackets this season, but in 3 matchups last year: he finished with 3+ shots each time, including a 4 SOG performance. In 12 career visits to Columbus where they’ll skate tonight, betting Reilly to get 2+ SOG is 10-2 (83%).

Leg Two: Seth Jones over 2.5 Shots (-145)

Chicago Blackhawks vs. Arizona Coyotes

The Blackhawks’ lone All-Star representative currently ranks 3rd on his team in shots despite missing 10 games. Looking at recent performance, his shot counts are on the rise, and betting Jones to clear 3+ SOG is 11-3 (79%) in his last 14 home games. Tonight, he skates at home and gets a favorable matchup vs. a Coyotes team that allows 34.8 shots per game (3rd most), of which: 29.8% are linked to defensemen (4th highest % in NHL; +1.8% vs. league average). Betting Jones to eclipse the 3+ SOG mark vs. Arizona is 5-1 (83%) in their last 6 meetings, and I like his chances to do it again!

Leg Three: Evgeni Malkin over 2.5 Shots (-175)

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks surrender the most shots per game in NHL (38.7). It’s been a persistent trend that we’ve exploited many times this season. Anaheim’s defensive issues are broad-based but arguably start with lack of discipline. They’re giving opponents 3.5 Power Play Opportunities per game this season (8th most) and allowing the 5th most shots in these situations. This makes the Ducks a prime opponent to back Evgeni Malkin’s shot prop against, in my opinion. The veteran sniper records roughly 33% of his shots in Power Play situations, and the Pens should see plenty tonight. Looking at matchup history: Malkin surpassed the 3+ SOG mark in each of his last 4 H2H matchups vs. Anaheim since 2019, often smashing the line. He successfully climbed the ladder to record 4+ SOG in 3 of those 4 games. While the 4+ Alt Line was tempting, I prefer 3+ for our parlay!

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The Slip:

I got +321 for the 3-leg lay at Draftkings Sportsbook and risked 0.75 units to win 2.41u!

Gentle reminder: Parlaying bets is a high-risk / high-reward strategy. I love this ticket, but please remember to bet responsibly!

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