I am going to once again begin with a reminder that reverse fixtures in UCL are always tricky. These are the best clubs in the world and they are meeting for the second time in under a week. Goals will be at a premium. Every game yesterday was u2.5, with five teams getting draws and three teams getting 2-0 wins. Chelsea and RB Leipzig were the only two betting favorites to come away with all three points.
Bet carefully and responsibly.
Atleti are bottom of this group and Brugge is at the top. Atleti has been an embarrassment to Spanish football so far this year in UCL and they should be looking to correct that at home today. It is not going to be easy, because Brugge has not allowed a single goal in all three of their UCL competitions. Very impressive for a team most people thought would not make it out of the group stages. Atleti have been making some lineup adjustments recently, now that the Griezmann contract issues have come to a conclusion. Morata is still Atleti’s top scorer and I’d expect to see him today. Correa had a brace this weekend and I think you have to have him out there. Jao Felix has been cold and coming off the bench. The offense for Atleti just hasn’t been firing on all cylinders. They have left a lot of the burden on Oblak in net with questionable back line support. Brugge is in the driver's seat of this group and can secure advancement into knockouts with a draw today. I like them to handle business and will probably take them on a double chance.
Napoli is playing like one of the best clubs in the world and they are still missing Victor Osimhen. That's impressive on its own. Giacomo Raspadori has stepped in and performed like a man on fire. He has three goals in UCL and has been excelling for club and country the last six weeks. Prime target for an AGS pick today. On top of that, Giovanni Simeone has been coming on as a late substitute and finding continued success. He comes on replacing Raspadori, or pushing him out to the wing where the two can play well in tandem. Napoli has won all three of their UCL matches and is top of the table in Serie A. They have managed to score 40 goals across all competitions this year and only allow 9 up. Ajax is a scrappy team who will want redemption from that embarrassing 6-1 home loss last week. Unfortunately, Ajax will be without Dusan Tardic who is suspended for drawing a second yellow turned red card last match. That leaves a lot of slack for Steven Bergwijn and Muhammed Kudus to pick up on the offensive end. Expect Ajax to come out and press the issue today regardless. Napoli only need a draw to secure advancement. I don’t think they sit back and defend though. They have had a lot of success playing wide open.
This game was filled with controversial calls last week and a lot of finger pointing at the ref/VAR from both sides. In the end, I think all things balanced out but I know Barca fans won’t see it that way. This is simply a must win game for Barcelona. They have been shut out in back to back UCL matches and without 3 points today, they can probably kiss the knockout rounds goodbye. They get Bayern after this match, and Bayern would love nothing more than to knock Lewandowski and his new club out of the competition. Inter have been playing better football lately and managed a road win at Sassuolo this weekend. Lautaro Martinez has struggled to finish quality opportunities in front of the net and that needs to change if they want to win this game. His teammate Edin Dzeko has luckily been able to pick up the slack and finish his opportunities, keeping Inter afloat. This is the biggest match on the slate today in my opinion.
Personally, I will be on Inter double chance. I am a Madrid fan and with El Clasico this weekend I can’t root for Barcelona even a little bit. It’s Barca hate week. That said, the play is to back them at home in a must win situation.
We all know that Bayern is a wagon. They just beat Plzen 5-0 and Bayern loves to jump down opponents throats early. Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala are playing absolutely phenomenal football and have been two of the hottest players in the game for goals and assists. Bayern only gets more dangerous today as Kimmich and Muller are expected to return from the COVID list.
Sorry in advance, Plzen, but thanks for coming out. Bayern easily handles business today.
Liverpool has an injury list a mile long and they unfortunately have to travel to Rangers today. Rangers at home are lethal. The Scottish fans flood that stadium and the Rangers thrive off the energy. Antonio Colak and James Tavernier will look to carry the Rangers to a win today. Tavernier is a unique player who is a defender, but also Rangers second leading scorer. He takes the PK’s but regularly presses forward in the offense contributing goals and assists. Liverpool are missing a player like that in Trent Alexander Arnold who is out with injury. Pool will be happy to take a draw and get the hell out of this stadium. I personally like the winless Rangers at home today against a beat up Pool team. Pool has to play Man City this weekend, and this game screams trap.
Marseille got an impressive 4-1 win against Sporting last match in an empty home stadium. If you know anything about Marseille, it should be that their home fans are absolutely ruthless. They were not allowed to attend the last match because of their antics in the game against Frankfurt. I won’t get into the details, but it wasn’t a great look. The team however looked great on the pitch and picked up their first UCL win. Sporting at home in Portugal will be much tougher. Sporting are top of this group and pride themselves on playing great defense. They have kept two clean sheets in three games in UCL. I like Sporting at home in a bounce back match to win 1-0, 2-0, or 2-1.
Tottenham haven’t looked great and Frankfurt is dead to me after losing to Bochum over the weekend. I think this game will be a lot like last week's 0-0 draw. Tottenham at home have an advantage and picking Harry Kane for a goal is never a bad move at plus money. I can’t pretend to care about this one honestly.
There’s much higher quality matches on today’s slate in my opinion.
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