The Haaland revenge narrative is really the only thing worth focusing on in this match. For those of you who don’t already know, Erling Haaland was probably the biggest free agent signing of the summer. Haaland is Dortmund’s former leading striker and he is now City’s leading striker. Haaland is an absolute physical specimen and if he has a chance to finish in front of net, odds are pretty high he’s going to do just that. He has 10 goals in six league matches for City and added two more in last weeks UCL fixture vs Sevilla. The man is a walking bucket.
I hate betting on this match because the numbers are absolutely terrible. So I am going to focus on the 2 story lines I think can develop from this match. They both center around the Haaland revenge narrative. First I’ll touch on the less likely scenario.
Dortmund are disappointed to see Haaland go and there is really no replacing a player like that. Dortmund went out and got Sebastine Haller from Ajax in an attempt to replace Haaland’s offensive production. Unfortunately for Haller, the club, and supporters around the world, Haller was diagnosed with testicular cancer this offseason and is currently undergoing chemotherapy. Scrambling, Dortmund had to sign a 34 year old Anthony Modeste right before the season. Modeste scored an impressive 20 goals for Koln in 32 matches last year but he is not a long term solution.
Dortmund managed to secure a 3-0 win last week against Copenhagen and would absolutely kill to come out of City with a draw or loss by one. They want to keep the goal differential down to secure advancement out of groups. City has been vulnerable early in games and If Dortmund can score in the first half, they may be able to hang on for dear life and escape in good standing. If you’re a Dortmund supporter or a City hater, the play here is Dortmund +2 on the asian handicap. This means that if Dortmund loses by 1, draws, or wins the match, you get paid as a winner. If dortmund loses by exactly 2, the bet is graded a push and you get your money
back. If Dortmund lose by 3 or more, you lose.
The other angle is that Haaland and his new club absolutely blow the doors off Dortmund and bury the corpse 6 feet under the stadium. Haaland brace (2 goals) and hat trick (3 goals) has to be the play, because the price on him to score is atrocious. Then you have to look at who will be feeding the ball into Haaland and the two prime candidates are Kevin De Bruyne and Phill Foden. Both of their assist numbers will be playable and I think parlaying their assist with a Haaland anytime goal is one of the only ways to extract value out of a single Haaland goal.
I tend to back the underdogs when in doubt about a game. Unfortunately, Dortmund put up a terrible performance this weekend at RB Leipzig losing 3-0. The only thing giving me hope is that this is UCL and not league play. You have to bring your very best on Wednesdays and I’m interested to see if Dortmund has that dog in them. I’m going to list all my picks, but please remember to pick and choose what you like. You arn’t meant to play the entire article.