@BurrOaks77's World Cup Semi Final Picks: Argentina vs Croatia - 12/13

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This is the match everyone expected to see, right?

First off, massive shout out to Croatia for getting an ET equalizer vs Brazil to send the game to PK’s. I honestly thought the game was over when Neymar scored. Croatia showed massive poise and an ability to go snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. This team is on a revenge tour and Argentina is the last team standing between Croatia and a second consecutive finals appearance.

Argentina looked to be the better side for the first 70 minutes of their match. Then the Netherlands brought on their big bodies and exposed a pretty significant weakness. This Argentinian team is SHORT and big bodies give them problems. Especially on set pieces. Croatia will hopefully have noticed that, because they definitely have a height advantage. Modric should be able to drop in dangerous balls for aerials in the box.

Ultimately Argentina won the match vs Netherlands in a PK shootout. It’s no secret that I had a major problem with the ref in that match. Messi had an obvious handball he wasn’t booked for, Argentina probably should have been shown a red for blasting the ball at Netherlands bench, calls were inconsistent at best, etc. etc. I would say that I was shocked by this atrocious officiating, but Lahoz is a La Liga ref and I am very familiar with his circus.

I think this will be a low scoring affair. I know I have said this at the end of every round, but it is worth repeating. Goals will be at a premium and the further into the tournament you go, the more obvious this becomes. I think Croatia is very sound and I wouldn’t anticipate seeing a PK awarded against them. Argentina has drawn a pen in regulation in three of their five matches this tournament. Messi scored on two of the three awarded.

I think we will get a fantastic midfield battle and most of this game will be played in the middle third. I don't anticipate either team being able to have sustained pressure in their opponent’s box. I think shots, SOT, goals, and assist props will be a tough market to play. That said, I can’t blame anyone for sticking with Messi props. He is completely backpacking this Argentine squad. I will certainly stick with his assist prop, as I believe Croatia will try and force someone else to beat them.

I am pumped to see two La Liga legends going at it again. Modric v Messi in their (most likely) final World Cup tournament. Club legends who battled it out for titles every year. There will be no love lost in this game. I think that Croatia have an advantage if this game goes to ET and especially in PK’s. If I am Argentina, I would do whatever I can to make sure this game is wrapped in 90’ or 120’ max. Dominik Livakovic has proven to be a brick wall in net and it is very clear that Croatia takes PK’s with authority and confidence. Emiliano Martinez is no slouch and a capable keeper, but he has allowed in a few questionable goals.

Full disclosure note: I am so sick of Messi and everyone talking about how much he “deserves” a World Cup for his career. I don’t feel anyone “deserves” anything in sports. That’s kind of the entire point of competition. You have to EARN victory. I want nothing more than to see Modric and Croatia send him packing. I am not sorry about that in the slightest.