Middlesbrough vs. Portsmouth: Prediction, Picks and Betting Odds

Middlesbrough are coming off the back of a poor result, but they should get back on track here. They have won four of their last five home games in the Championship and possess much more individual quality than their opponents.

Despite the good performance, Portsmouth were quite lucky to draw with Leeds, scoring three goals from 0.89xG while conceding 3.20xG.

Middlesbrough have accrued the second-highest expected goals per game rate in the league, currently 2.28xG per game, and also have the third-lowest expected goals against rate, currently at 0.75xG.

Portsmouth, by comparison, have conceded 2.08xG per game (the second-highest rate in the league) and have recorded only 0.92xG in their favor.

The underlying numbers have Middlesbrough trending very highly and Portsmouth less so, so a home win feels like a pretty likely outcome here. Middlesbrough 2-0 Portsmouth.

Middlesbrough are looking to make up for a poor result last time out as they face Portsmouth away from home in the Championship this weekend.

• Date: 08/24/2024
• Kick-off time: 10:00 AM ET
• Location: Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough currently sit 11th in the Championship with three points from their first two games. Middlesbrough are strong promotion hopefuls this season after two impressive campaigns on the bounce under Michael Carrick, and given they entered this season in much more settled circumstances than they did last time out there is a belief they can go all the way this time around.

Middlesbrough have been up and down in terms of performances, but their start to the season has definitely yielded more positives than it has negatives. They signed Bristol City striker Tommy Conway in the week, meaning they now possess a very impressive amount of attacking firepower at this level.

There is still a minor concern over whether Middlesbrough can keep hold of star midfielder Hayden Hackney. The England U21 man has been linked with numerous clubs over the past year or so and while transfer rumors involving his name have quietened down a lot, there is still time for a wealthy Premier League club to swoop in.

Regardless, the squad is looking forceful at present and if they can keep everyone fit and avoid another injury crisis, à la last season, they'll likely be a real threat.

Middlesbrough's home form needs to be strong this season as they seek a top six finish, so games at the Riverside against newly promoted opposition cannot result in anything other than a win from their perspective.

Portsmouth currently sit 15th in the Championship with two points from their first two games. Despite facing an exceptionally tough start to the season on paper, it’s been an extremely impressive start to the season for the Championship new boys.

Portsmouth lost a couple of big players from last season's promotion-winning team in the summer through the expiration of loan deals, and to make matters worse they also came into this campaign missing one of their star attackers, Colby Bishop, owing to a health condition, so to deliver the results, they have under these circumstances is worthy of applause.

There was an expectation among many that Portsmouth would avoid relegation coming into the campaign, but the level of resolve they’ve shown early doors will have fans believing they can have a pretty comfortable season.

Portsmouth will still want to add quality to their ranks before the transfer window shuts, and there is talk about Chelsea’s Tino Anjorin coming back for a second straight loan spell, so their eventual ceiling could end up being even higher.

Pompey’s start to the season isn’t getting much easier with this fixture, but if they can pick up points here they’ll be mightily pleased.

Four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the two teams have resulted in draws, but these two haven’t locked horns since March 2012, when Middlesbrough recorded a 3-1 win at Fratton Park.

Middlesbrough Team News:

Middlesbrough will once again be without Thomas Smith, Alex Bangura and Marcus Forss, all of whom are sidelined with injuries.

Changes are likely in line following the result at the weekend, with the likes of Micah Hamilton and Tommy Conway pushing for a place in the starting XI.

Predicted lineup: Dieng; Ayling, Van den Berg, Clarke, Engel; Hackney, Morris; Hamilton, Conway, Burgzorg; Latte Lath.

Portsmouth Team News:

Summer signing Josh Murphy is yet to make a competitive appearance for the club and will likely miss out with injury once again here.

Regan Poole, Jacob Farrell and Tom McIntyre all remain on the treatment table, while Elias Sørensen is a doubt after missing out at the weekend.

Predicted lineup: Norris; Williams, Shaughnessy, Towler, Ogilvie; Dozzell, Pack; Lane, Lang, Silvera; Saydee.

Middlesbrough opened their account for the season with a 1-0 win over Swansea City at the Riverside. Swansea enjoyed more possession, but the Welsh side could do little with it, with Boro clearly the superior team both tactically and technically. Were it not for wasteful finishing, Michael Carrick’s side would have extended the lead given to them by an Emmanuel Latte Lath penalty in the first half and won by a greater margin.

Middlesbrough then travelled to Elland Road to take on Leeds United in the EFL Cup, and despite fielding a largely second-string XI, Boro surged to a thumping 3-0 win thanks to a dominant second half performance with goals from Anfernee Dijksteel, Delano Burgzorg and Josh Coburn.

Things didn’t go quite as rosy at the weekend, however, as Middlesbrough locked horns with newly promoted Derby County away from home and fell to a 1-0 defeat. Boro will have been frustrated by the game as Derby’s goal came from a wayward Isaiah Jones backpass that played Derby’s Kayden Jackson through on goal to open the scoring, but that goal came in the 14th minute and despite enjoying 70% of the possession the Smoggies failed to create many clear chances.

Portsmouth began their return to life in England’s second tier with a 3-3 draw away at Leeds United. In what was a back-and-forth encounter, Portsmouth responded well to a fast start by Leeds United to turn around a 1-0 deficit in the first half through goals from Elias Sørensen and Callum Lang.

Leeds equalised early in the second half, but Portsmouth matched the Peacocks for the rest of the half and took a 3-2 lead through a Lang penalty in the second minute of added time. Leeds did equalise just three minutes later, but Pompey held on for a fine result.

A heavily changed Portsmouth team took on Millwall in the EFL Cup in midweek and fell to a 0-1 defeat, and while it wasn’t the kind of result they’d wanted they won’t get too downtrodden given they rested most of their key players.

Portsmouth faced off against newly relegated Luton Town at the weekend and managed a 0-0 draw, a good result on the whole. Luton were reduced to ten men after goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski was shown red for two first-half bookings, and while Pompey failed to capitalise on the man advantage they’ll still be satisfied with the point.

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