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@Matkafee's Man City vs. Real Madrid UCL Pick - 4/26

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Manchester City v Real Madrid - 3pm ET

Manchester City host Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final tonight. These two clubs last met in the round of 16 back in 2020 with City advancing 4-2 on aggregate. The squads haven’t changed much since then, although Carlo Ancelotti has replaced Zinedine Zidane on the Real Madrid touch line and they have moved on from the Ramos/Varane partnership in defense.

Real Madrid have the rest advantage having not played since Wednesday, although Watford didn’t put up much of a challenge on Saturday for City. Gabriel Jesus (who has been linked with a move to Arsenal this summer) was in sparkling form, putting four past Ben Foster inside of an hour. Having scored in both legs of the 2020 round of 16 matchup it will be impossible for Pep to drop the Brazilian.

Real Madrid will go as far as their talisman Karim Benzema can take them. He enjoyed his previous trip to England, grabbing a hat trick at Stamford Bridge. That being said, you can’t help but wonder what missing two penalties at Osasuna last week will do to his psyche. City’s game plan will be to cut-off supply to him through a high press and it’ll be up to Kroos and Modric to break that.

I’m predicting Manchester City have enough to get by Real Madrid today but the moneyline of -220 isn’t attractive enough of a price for me. By now you know I like to try and find plus odds and I think a parlay of City to win and Under 3.5 goals at +120 is a bet!

Matt's Pick

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Man City to Win & Under 3.5 Match Goals @ +120
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