AC Milan vs Genoa: Preview, Prediction & Betting Tips

Location: San Siro

Date: 05/05/2024

Kick-Off: 17:00 PM
AC Milan are on the verge of Champions League qualification next weekend as they host a Genoa side who have nothing realistically to play for in the rest of the season. AC Milan will more than likely be searching for a new manager if rumours are to be believed surrounding Stefano Pioli.

The hosts are more than likely to secure a Champions League finish this season, upon falling in the title race to a brilliant display by their city rivals. AC Milan currently place in second place and 19 points behind Inter Milan, and they suffered the unfortunate circumstance of having their city rivals win the league in the Derby della Madonnina.

The Rossoneri only need a point to secure Champions League football after a year away from the competition. The hosts only have four games left to play in all competitions having been eliminated from the Coppa Italia against Atalanta. In European competition this season, they suffered an aggregate defeat against A.S Roma in the quarter final.

AC Milan would want to keep the advantage they currently have over their competitive rivals Juventus. The hosts have a five-point lead over Juventus having played the same number of games. A defeat for AC Milan against Genoa, would see that advantage shortened to two points if Juventus were to beat A.S Roma in their respective game.

In AC Milan’s last game, they recorded a 0-0 draw away at Juventus. Milan were rather fortunate to obtain a draw by all accounts, having conceded 18 shots in which seven were on target. AC Milan failed to record a single shot on target in this game but came away with a draw.

As for the visitors, Genoa should have no qualms regarding relegation or any potential European places they could qualify for. Genoa would still ideally want to finish the season strongly and they could potentially finish inside the top ten.

Genoa have played 33 games so far this season, although they do have a Monday game against Cagliari to contend with before their visit to the San Siro. The away side could gain some points on the teams above by time this fixture takes place.

Alberto Gillardino could be taking his Genoa side to the San Siro, with only a two-point gap to the teams above. Genoa are five points behind Monza, so a win over Cagliari and then a potential win over AC Milan could move Genoa above Monza and into 11th. Torino currently occupy the tenth-place spot and will only have a four-point gap if Genoa were to win their game in hand on Monday.

In the reverse fixture between the two teams, AC Milan were the victors. Former Chelsea winger Christian Pulisic, scored the only goal of the game in quite an ill-tempered affair. Mike Maignan and Josep Martinez were both dismissed for either side, deep into injury time.

AC Milan unquestionably have the superior advantage in this fixture if recent history is anything to go by. The home side have won five out of their last five games between the two sides.

The last fixture at the San Siro between the two teams, took place in 2022 where AC Milan won 2-0. Goals from Junior Messias and Rafael Leao secured all three points for the hosts that day.

AC Milan and Genoa were unable to play each other last season. The reasoning behind this was because Genoa were playing in Serie B last campaign. AC Milan achieved a league double over Genoa the last time both teams were in the same league as each other previously.

In the last 20 meetings between the two sides, unsurprisingly AC Milan have the better record between the two teams. Milan have won 12 out of the 20 meetings between the two sides, drawing three times and losing five.

The home side enter this game on the back of some mixed form in Serie A. Stefano Pioli’s side have won two out of their last five league games, with only one of them being at the San Siro. The last time AC Milan recorded consecutive league wins was over Lecce and Fiorentina at the beginning of April.

The recent home win over Lecce was a routine victory for Pioli’s side. Rafael Leao, Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic gave the Rossoneri all three points as Nikola Krstovic was dismissed for Lecce that game.
The hosts record at the San Siro has been excellent this season. AC Milan have played 16 games at home this season, winning 11, drawing twice and losing three. Milan have averaged 2.19 points per game at home and have won 69% of their home games this season.

Milan score on average 1.69 goals per game at the San Siro and defensively they are brilliant having only conceded 0.63 goals per game at the San Siro. This is also reflected by the fact they have kept a 50% clean sheet average at home against away opposition.
Rafael Leao is the player we are picking out to make an impact in this game. The Portuguese forward has 15 goal contributions this season and has averaged 0.58 goal contributions per 90 minutes played.

Genoa doesn’t’ particularly have a great record away from home. The away side have played 17 games away from home this season and have only won four, drawn six and lost the remaining seven in that time.

The visitors have only won once in their last five away games, with their most recent win in those five coming against Verona. Genoa were 2-1 winners that day thanks to goals from Albert Gudmundsson and Caleb Ekuban.

Gilardino’s side have won 24% of their away games this season and have an unfortunate 18% clean sheet rate when playing away from home. Genoa do provide goals away from home, having a moderate 1.12 goals on average scored.

Genoa have only obtained 1.06 points per game on the road. Albert Gudmundsson is the top scorer for Genoa this season. The Icelandic international has 13 goals and averages 0.52 goal contributions per 90 minutes.

AC Milan

Pierre Kalulu, Simon Kjaer could both be ruled out of this game due to injury. Although with their return schedules they could make a late push to be in contention for this game.
Davide Calabria is suspended for this game. Matteo Gabbia is a suspension risk.

Genoa

Alan Matturo, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Junior Messias and Mattia Bani are all ruled out with injury problems. Kevin Strootman, Albert Gudmundsson, and Alessandro Vogliacco are suspension risks for this game.

For this game, we expect AC Milan to seal their place in next year's UEFA Champions League with a 2-0 victory over Genoa at the San Siro.

AC Milan 2-0 Genoa