The United States kick-off their World Cup campaign against Wales on Monday and after spending quite some time analyzing both teams, I’ve come up with my 3 favorite bets for the Matchday 1 clash, combining them into a Same-Game Parlay.
The Parlay comes out at +1040 odds, continue reading to see it below!
USA ML (+150)
Over 8.5 Corners (-125)
Both Teams to Score – YES (+108)
Parlay odds: +1040
** Odds provided by FanDuel **
It promises to be an intriguing contest between two evenly matched teams, but I am giving a slight edge to the Americans here simply because of the poor form Wales are in right now. They are currently on a 3-game losing streak and without a win since beating Ukraine in the WC qual. Playoff 1-0. Over their last 11 games they’ve conceded in all but 1 of them, those stats are alarming if you are Wales manager Rob Page.
The US is averaging 2.15 goals for and 0.64 average goals against since Gregg Berhalter took over in 2018 and he is proving to be just the right fit for this young squad. Their style of play mainly revolves around putting pressure on opposing defenses and Wales aren’t exactly a team that loves playing under pressure. Getting a win could be crucial for advancing to the knockout stage here, I am expecting Team USA to be at their best and collect the three points.
With each side knowing that this match could very likely decide the 2nd place in Group B behind England, I am expecting both of them to play a free flowing attacking game right from the get-go. If we look at the last 5 Team USA games we can see them averaging 8.4 corners per game and in those 5 matches they’ve cleared this line twice, with the 3 games in which they failed to do so saw 7, 7 and 8 corners so they are right there. Wales have been even more productive in their last 5 games clearing this line 3 times with an average of 8.8 corners per game.
With both teams having excellent set piece takers such as Gareth Bale and Weston McKennie, I believe part of the strategy for both sides could be to try and get a goal from the corner here. On paper, 9 corners sounds a lot, but it should be doable for these two teams.
Both teams have offensive talent on their rosters, so it’s really hard to imagine this game not seeing goals. Wales have struggled on defense lately allowing at least 1 goal in 8 of their last 9 matches, the one time they were able to keep a clean sheet was against Ukraine in the WC qualifying playoff final. Even in that game they faced 22 shots, but a performance for the ages by Wayne Hennessey managed to keep their net untouched.
Team USA has also had their fair share of struggles on that end of the pitch allowing 1.2 goals per match over their last 5 outings. The good news is they were also prolific in front of goal scoring 1.6 goals during that stretch while netting in each of those 5 games. USA’s biggest hope of scoring lies with FC Dallas forward Jesus Ferreira who has scored 18 goals in 31 matches this year. He’s scored 4 goals in the last 5 games for team USA, it might be worth backing him to score anytime in this match at a tasty +230 odds. For Wales, I am expecting Gareth Bale to be the primary option on the attack. Although he’s not the player he once used to be, he still possesses enough quality to be a threat on offense, just ask the Philadelphia Union.
