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@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 9/13

"He's pretty much the best, maybe the best to ever pitch.” — Mookie Betts on Wednesday

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Leg 1: deGrom 9+ Strikeouts

Here’s why we’re backing deGoat for 9+:

  • It’s a key number for him when comparing hit rates:
    • Betting over 8.5 Ks is 5-2 (71.4%) this season.
    • Which drops to 2-5 (28.6%) vs. the next step up.
  • One of the two games that finished under was his first appearance of the season, and he was on a pitch count that day.
  • The second miss was his most recent start vs. a weak Pirates lineup. He finished with 8 that night, a somewhat surprising and disappointing result (by deGrom standards).
  • I reviewed what happened, and his underlying fundamentals looked fine and make me optimistic it was a fluke (his 33% called strike + whiff rate in Pittsburgh was roughly in-line with his L2 years average CSW of 36%, for example).
  • That game was also on the tail end of a road trip. Tonight, he returns to Citi Field where betting deGrom’s 9+ strikeouts prop is 4-0 this season.
  • All of these things pave the way for a nice bounce back spot vs. a Cubs’ roster with a 35.7% strikeout rate vs. him in career 28 PAs.
  • 6 of their 9 projected starters have above average strikeout rates vs. RHP.
  • Jacob’s Outs Prop line is set at o/u 18.5 for tonight’s contest, which implies to expect roughly 6 IP from him, and he’s averaging 1.46 K/IP this season (6 IP x 1.46 K/IP = 8.76 Ks).

Leg 2: Mets F5

Here’s why we’re pairing with F5 run line:

  • Jacob deGoat is starting. (*drops mic*)
  • They’re also coming off a loss, and the Mets are the #1 ranked team in this spot, as measured by win rate (73.1%).
  • Betting them to win the first 5 innings (F5) is 47-23 (67.1%) at Citi Field this season.
  • When deGrom starts, it’s 5-2 (71.4%), and they won 5 of those 7 games outright (effectively the same hit rate as F5).
  • Given identical hit rates, I prefer the F5 angle, which is listed at nearly a 50% discount vs. full-game ML tonight.
  • Last but not least, I like that Adrian Sampson is scheduled to pitch for the Cubs.
  • That is a clear mismatch and supports a pick on deGoat and the Mets to win the first 5.
FML
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Jacob deGrom 9+ Ks & Mets to win F5 @ -117
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