@FastMoneyLabs' Best Bet - 9/13

"He's pretty much the best, maybe the best to ever pitch.” — Mookie Betts on Wednesday

Here’s why we’re backing deGoat for 9+:

• It’s a key number for him when comparing hit rates:
• Betting over 8.5 Ks is 5-2 (71.4%) this season.
• Which drops to 2-5 (28.6%) vs. the next step up.
• One of the two games that finished under was his first appearance of the season, and he was on a pitch count that day.
• The second miss was his most recent start vs. a weak Pirates lineup. He finished with 8 that night, a somewhat surprising and disappointing result (by deGrom standards).
• I reviewed what happened, and his underlying fundamentals looked fine and make me optimistic it was a fluke (his 33% called strike + whiff rate in Pittsburgh was roughly in-line with his L2 years average CSW of 36%, for example).
• That game was also on the tail end of a road trip. Tonight, he returns to Citi Field where betting deGrom’s 9+ strikeouts prop is 4-0 this season.
• All of these things pave the way for a nice bounce back spot vs. a Cubs’ roster with a 35.7% strikeout rate vs. him in career 28 PAs.
• 6 of their 9 projected starters have above average strikeout rates vs. RHP.
• Jacob’s Outs Prop line is set at o/u 18.5 for tonight’s contest, which implies to expect roughly 6 IP from him, and he’s averaging 1.46 K/IP this season (6 IP x 1.46 K/IP = 8.76 Ks).

Here’s why we’re pairing with F5 run line:

• Jacob deGoat is starting. (*drops mic*)
• They’re also coming off a loss, and the Mets are the #1 ranked team in this spot, as measured by win rate (73.1%).
• Betting them to win the first 5 innings (F5) is 47-23 (67.1%) at Citi Field this season.
• When deGrom starts, it’s 5-2 (71.4%), and they won 5 of those 7 games outright (effectively the same hit rate as F5).
• Given identical hit rates, I prefer the F5 angle, which is listed at nearly a 50% discount vs. full-game ML tonight.
• Last but not least, I like that Adrian Sampson is scheduled to pitch for the Cubs.
• That is a clear mismatch and supports a pick on deGoat and the Mets to win the first 5.