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$FML's +484 Friday Night MLB Parlay - 4/21

FastMoneyLabs is back with a Friday Night MLB Parlay including a Round Robin. Make sure to check out the "The Slips" section to see how he's playing this one!

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Leg 1: Michael Kopech Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-135) vs. Tampa Bay

Tampa owes us one! They blew a tire on the Parlay last week but remain a perfect 10-0 at Tropicana Field – scoring 7.8 runs per game.

It’s Michael Kopech’s turn in Chicago’s rotation, they’re in town, and he’s a clear regression candidate:

  • 6.32 actual ERA compares to 12.69 expected ERA, which factors in quality of contact being allowed.
  • He’s stranding 93% of baserunners allowed through 3 starts – an unsustainable number.
  • His 0.225 batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP) is peculiarly low at a time when BABIP is UP league wide.

He also fared worse on the road last year (4.26 ERA vs. 3.01 at home); and Tampa’s offense ranks #1 vs. Right-Handed Pitching so far (as measured by weighted Runs Created+).

First 5 Innings Team Total works, but I like how Earned Runs provides a path to cash in the 6th inning, too. I went with that!

Leg 2: Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Hits (-260) vs. Colorado

He just set a Phillies Franchise record with a 17-game hit streak to start the season. Then it snapped. Now he’s hungry.

Noah Davis gets hit harder vs. Lefties. And Stott’s a Lefty hitting 0.382 vs. Righties like Davis. I also like how Stott’s walking just 1.6% of the time vs. Righties this year.

It’s an expensive bet @ -260 but should be worth the price of admission tonight!

Leg 3: Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135) vs. Milwaukee

He ranked in the Top-50 Pitchers who benefited from defensive shifts. Now they’re banned, but the impact hasn’t bled into his numbers yet.

He’s allowing a 0.222 batting average allowed on balls in plays (BABIP) which is very fishy through 3 starts. That number was 0.290 or higher in each of the last 3 seasons with defensive shifts. Now they’re banned, and he’s clearly due for regression in the hits allowed category. Milwaukee’s the #3 ranked offense in BABIP vs. Righties so far. Look for them to bring Pivetta back to Earth by recording at least 5+ hits.

Leg 4: Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Hits (-255) vs. St. Louis

He’s mashing vs. Lefties (0.312 batting average), and Steven Matz is surrendering hits 41% of the time vs. Right-Handed Batters this year. He prefers to attack down in the zone, and Julio’s a strong low-ball hitter – especially vs. changeups and breaking balls. The two have yet to clash Head-to-Head, but according to the BallPark.Com Matchup Machine: Julio Rodriguez grades in the worst 9% of possible matchups for Steven Matz. Say less, matchup machine! Take my money.

The Slips:

I placed 2 different bets:

  • Parlay Everything (+484) (risk 0.5 units)
  • Round Robin in Combos of 3 (0.25U x 4 combos = 1 unit risked)

In a perfect world we cash everything! However, in the event we go 3 for 4, we can get some money back via Round Robin (amount will depend on which legs cash).

Max Win: +5.2 Units; Max Loss: -1.5 Units

MLB Parlay
MLB Round Robin
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