$FML's +484 Friday Night MLB Parlay - 4/21

FastMoneyLabs is back with a Friday Night MLB Parlay including a Round Robin. Make sure to check out the "The Slips" section to see how he's playing this one!

⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

Leg 1: Michael Kopech Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-135) vs. Tampa Bay

Tampa owes us one! They blew a tire on the Parlay last week but remain a perfect 10-0 at Tropicana Field – scoring 7.8 runs per game.

It’s Michael Kopech’s turn in Chicago’s rotation, they’re in town, and he’s a clear regression candidate:

  • 6.32 actual ERA compares to 12.69 expected ERA, which factors in quality of contact being allowed.
  • He’s stranding 93% of baserunners allowed through 3 starts – an unsustainable number.
  • His 0.225 batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP) is peculiarly low at a time when BABIP is UP league wide.

He also fared worse on the road last year (4.26 ERA vs. 3.01 at home); and Tampa’s offense ranks #1 vs. Right-Handed Pitching so far (as measured by weighted Runs Created+).

First 5 Innings Team Total works, but I like how Earned Runs provides a path to cash in the 6th inning, too. I went with that!

Leg 2: Bryson Stott Over 0.5 Hits (-260) vs. Colorado

He just set a Phillies Franchise record with a 17-game hit streak to start the season. Then it snapped. Now he’s hungry.

Noah Davis gets hit harder vs. Lefties. And Stott’s a Lefty hitting 0.382 vs. Righties like Davis. I also like how Stott’s walking just 1.6% of the time vs. Righties this year.

It’s an expensive bet @ -260 but should be worth the price of admission tonight!

Leg 3: Nick Pivetta Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135) vs. Milwaukee

He ranked in the Top-50 Pitchers who benefited from defensive shifts. Now they’re banned, but the impact hasn’t bled into his numbers yet.

He’s allowing a 0.222 batting average allowed on balls in plays (BABIP) which is very fishy through 3 starts. That number was 0.290 or higher in each of the last 3 seasons with defensive shifts. Now they’re banned, and he’s clearly due for regression in the hits allowed category. Milwaukee’s the #3 ranked offense in BABIP vs. Righties so far. Look for them to bring Pivetta back to Earth by recording at least 5+ hits.

Leg 4: Julio Rodriguez Over 0.5 Hits (-255) vs. St. Louis

He’s mashing vs. Lefties (0.312 batting average), and Steven Matz is surrendering hits 41% of the time vs. Right-Handed Batters this year. He prefers to attack down in the zone, and Julio’s a strong low-ball hitter – especially vs. changeups and breaking balls. The two have yet to clash Head-to-Head, but according to the BallPark.Com Matchup Machine: Julio Rodriguez grades in the worst 9% of possible matchups for Steven Matz. Say less, matchup machine! Take my money.

The Slips:

I placed 2 different bets:

  • Parlay Everything (+484) (risk 0.5 units)
  • Round Robin in Combos of 3 (0.25U x 4 combos = 1 unit risked)

In a perfect world we cash everything! However, in the event we go 3 for 4, we can get some money back via Round Robin (amount will depend on which legs cash).

Max Win: +5.2 Units; Max Loss: -1.5 Units

MLB Parlay
MLB Round Robin
Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly in Virginia
CLAIM NOW
New users in VA. 21+

Free Bets & Offers


Virginia: Bet $1 on Anything & Get $200 Guaranteed
Deposit required. Bonus Bets winnings are added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bet wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. CO, NJ, OH & VA only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. 21+
CLAIM NOW
Virginia: Bet $20, Win $200 in Free Bets
Promo Code: GET100. New users in VA. 21+.
CLAIM NOW
Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
$1,000 in Bonus Bets on any Sport in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
Get up to $100 in Bonus Bets
21+ Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Claim Now
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
State Selector
Virginia
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2023 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.6 (1)