Here’s how he performed in home playoff games since 2017:
- 0.347 batting average
- 0.398 on-base percentage
- 0.727 slugging percentage
- 1.124 OPS
Here are the same stats translated to betting context:
- 1+ Hit in 32/37 (86.5%) home games
- 2+ Total Bases in 24/37 (64.9%)
- 2.95 total bases per game
Now consider this: +140 odds imply Altuve has a 41.7% chance to collect 2+ Total Bases today. That's a 23.2% discount vs. his historical hit rate in this situation. Even if we assume some negative regression might be imminent, I’d expect this bet to be priced closer to +110.
Matchup factors also support this pick, as Altuve historically crushes Mariners’ pitcher Logan Gilbert:
- 8 hits in 19 career at bats (0.421 batting average)
- 6 of those 8 hits went for extra bases (5 doubles, 1 home run)
Personal vendettas aside, all these facts point to strong value in a bet Altuve records 2+ Total Bases at +140 available Draftkings, Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet.
I bet a full a unit at +140 to win 1.4 and would take this down to +135, which would be a +5% edge vs. my expected price of +110.