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$FML's Best Bet - 10/11

Jose Altuve (HOU) vs. Seattle

In a world where Major League Baseball is played more like Professional Wrestling, Jose Altuve might be the greatest heel character of all time. Fans absolutely despise this guy. Altuve knows it, and the lil man feeds off the hate. Dude thrives under pressure, too. Especially at home in a playoff environment.

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Here’s how he performed in home playoff games since 2017:

  • 0.347 batting average
  • 0.398 on-base percentage
  • 0.727 slugging percentage
  • 1.124 OPS

Here are the same stats translated to betting context:

  • 1+ Hit in 32/37 (86.5%) home games
  • 2+ Total Bases in 24/37 (64.9%)
  • 2.95 total bases per game

Now consider this: +140 odds imply Altuve has a 41.7% chance to collect 2+ Total Bases today. That's a 23.2% discount vs. his historical hit rate in this situation. Even if we assume some negative regression might be imminent, I’d expect this bet to be priced closer to +110.

Matchup factors also support this pick, as Altuve historically crushes Mariners’ pitcher Logan Gilbert:

  • 8 hits in 19 career at bats (0.421 batting average)
  • 6 of those 8 hits went for extra bases (5 doubles, 1 home run)

Personal vendettas aside, all these facts point to strong value in a bet Altuve records 2+ Total Bases at +140 available Draftkings, Barstool Sportsbook, BetRivers, SugarHouse and Unibet.

I bet a full a unit at +140 to win 1.4 and would take this down to +135, which would be a +5% edge vs. my expected price of +110.

$FML's Best Bet

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Jose Altuve (HOU) over 1.5 Total Bases (+140) vs. Seattle @ +140
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