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$FML's Best Bet for Wednesday Afternoon - 4/5

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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Yankees

The majority of public action backed the over (roughly 63%), yet oddsmakers still shaved half a run off this game total (from 7.0 to 6.5). Very interesting.

3 reasons why I think this might be a lower scoring game:

  1. Weather: cool (50 degrees), damp, and winds blowing in (10 MPH) from center. Not ideal for bats, and per games matching these conditions have -22% less runs scored, on average, at Yankee Stadium, driven by a -32% drop in home runs.
  2. Pitching: both teams’ aces are on the bump, and it’s true… Nola struggled opening day. Also true: he’s still Aaron damn Nola. He’ll bounce back. Gerrit Cole, on the other hand, already looks to be in mid-season form.
  3. Lineups: no Giancarlo Stanton for New York (resting; available to pinch hit).

Nola’s also one of the most consistent 1st inning pitchers in the game (52-13 NRFI since 2019). He’s a perfect 2-0 NRFI vs. the Yankees in that stretch and 28-7 (80%) on the road.

Cole’s had similar success opening games (49-15 NRFI since 2019) but gets dinged in my grading process for an elevated 1st inning home run rate (6.3 per 100 PA). I’m less concerned about it today though given the Bronx weather and wind forecast.

I hate backing NRFI vs. strong offenses, but the stars are aligned for a lower scoring game! And generally speaking — NRFI is a good correlated bet. While it’s playable at -150, I prefer the plus money odds we’re getting in a related market that can cash even if runs cross the plate.

$FML's Best Bet

I risked 0.76 units to win 1U @ +132

The Pick: Game to be tied after 2 innings (+132) via FanDuel

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