If infield shifts are banned, then offense should improve going forward, right? It’s a small sample… but Opening Weekend data supports the theory.
Batting Average on Balls in Play
Not insanely different yet, but the gap is expected to widen… which begs a question.
Which pitchers benefited most from the shift in the last 3 seasons?
Identifying and categorizing these pitchers might help predict regression candidates. I ran the analysis using FanGraphs data. Here’s what I found:
Turns out that 3 of the top 13 impacted SPs are on the bump today (Mahle, Walker and Berrios).
Here’s why I narrowed in on Mahle…
Miami’s offense was TRASH last year, but the 2023 version? Sneaky upside…
Everybody knows the Marlins scored the 3rd fewest runs last season. Betting their Team Total to go ‘Over’ every game would’ve produced a net loss of 35 units. Pathetic, I know. Miami also struggled to score Opening Weekend. These two things are giving us a discount in the Team Total market at a time when: (1) advanced stats suggest Miami deserved to score more runs last weekend, and (2) the season-long scoring outlook is brighter than one might think (at least in my opinion).
Too Long / Didn’t Read: I’m buying the dip on an improving Marlins offense vs. a pitcher who might be overrated in pricing models right now due to rule changes.
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4th time is the charm for these two?! Ketel remains absolutely automatic and is 1 for 3 vs Eovaldi. His back is against the wall and expecting him to come up clutch and get a hit i...