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$FML's MLB Best Bets for Wednesday - 4/12

$FML gave us two plus money plays (One HR, One RBI) for today's action!

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Cal Raleigh Home Run (+340) vs. Cubs

  • Cal Raleigh Home Run (+340) vs. Cubs

Note: this is contingent on him being in the lineup (still pending at time of writing)

Assuming he’s in… I’m sprinkling 0.25 units at Draftkings Sportsbook

Warm temps and 20 MPH winds blowing out to center at WRIGLEY?! Sign me up.

Cubs’ starter Marcus Stroman got knocked for a Home Run roughly once every 6 IP at Wrigley Field last year but is yet to allow one through 12 IP! He’s pitching to a 68% ground ball rate through 2 starts; however, that number was closer to 52% in each of the last 3 seasons. Tells me he’s due for worse luck, and I’m willing to bet it’s imminent!

Here’s why I backed the Mariners’ catcher to buck the trend:

  • Stroman LIVES in the bottom half of the strike zone
  • Throws Sinker/Slider 87% of the time vs. Right-Handed Batters
  • And you know who RAKES vs. low pitches against Righties, especially Sinkers and Sliders? CAL RALEIGH
  • 27 of his 30 HR last year came vs. Right-Handed Pitchers
  • And his highest Slugging percentage splits came vs. Stroman’s primary pitches… Sliders (0.660) and Sinkers (0.585) projections have the fair odds closer to +240 for a Raleigh dinger after factoring in weather. I’ll take +340!

Ryan Mountcastle 1+ RBI (+140) vs. Oakland

  • Ryan Mountcastle 1+ RBI (+140) vs. Oakland

I risked a full unit at Draftkings Sportsbook

3 Home Runs and 11 RBIs in… 3 GAMES?!

The Duke of Birdland (made up name) Sir Ryan Mountcastle (sir feels justified) is operating like a well-oiled, RBI MACHINE since moving into Baltimore’s 3 spot. Don’t see that train stopping tonight and I’m hopping on it!

He’s slashing 0.500/0.467/1.429 vs. Left-Handed Pitching this year (#1 in all of MLB); and Ken Waldichuk’s a Lefty allowing 0.693 expected slugging percentage this year (bottom 4% of MLB). He lives UP in the zone vs. Right-Handed Batters, and Mountcastle absolutely SLAYS high pitches vs. Lefties.

Oakland might want to pitch around him today after he went deep last night... Only 1 problem. Mountcastle doesn’t like to walk! (only 6.5% of the time vs. LHP). Also seeing a decent chance runners will be on base when he steps to the plate, limiting walk risk and boosting RBI potential.

If we cash Cal Raleigh HR, I may roll profits into Mountastle HR, too! TBD.

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