$FML's MLB Saturday Play of the Day - 4/22

⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Running it back on the Pirates but with a slightly different angle. They’re averaging 3.62 First 5 Innings Runs (2nd most) and coming off a game where they left 8 men on base and still scored 4.

Tonight’s pitching matchup projects better vs. Luis Cessa. He’s getting absolutely clocked in headline metrics (13.50 ERA for example) and advanced stats validate the concern. For example his 12.03 expected ERA and 0.389 expected batting average allowed — which factor in quality of opponent contact — both rank bottom 1% of qualifying pitchers so far.

Only thing I don’t love is the weather forecast. It shows a slight chance of rain in Pittsburgh tonight. That’s a risk I’m willing to accept though given the A+ matchup plus team trend. I also like how the game total is tugging up towards 9.5 (from 9) and PIT ML price moved to -160 (from -145 at the open). All good signs supporting this pick!

For what it’s worth, BallparkPal.com simulates each game thousands of times, and they have PIT scoring 3.084 runs in the first 5 innings tonight.

FML MLB saturday pick
Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly in Virginia
CLAIM NOW
New users in VA. 21+

Free Bets & Offers


Virginia: Bet $1 on Anything & Get $200 Guaranteed
Deposit required. Bonus Bets winnings are added to Bonus Bets balance. Bonus Bet wager excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply. CO, NJ, OH & VA only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. 21+
CLAIM NOW
Virginia: Bet $20, Win $200 in Free Bets
Promo Code: GET100. New users in VA. 21+.
CLAIM NOW
Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
$1,000 in Bonus Bets on any Sport in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
Get up to $100 in Bonus Bets
21+ Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Claim Now
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
State Selector
Virginia
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2023 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.6 (1)