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$FML's Monday Best MLB Bets - 4/10

FML has two plays for Monday's late night showdown between the Angels and Nationals. Night owls only!

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Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington Nationals

As an east coaster… I’m not thrilled this is my favorite spot (game starts late in the eastern time zone). That said… As a gambling man, I’m absolutely amped. Here’s why.

The Halos are MASHING vs. Left-Handed Pitching (LHP). Mike Trout’s leading the charge (5 hits in 7 at bats, 0.714 batting average), but it’s not just him. See the team’s overall rankings vs. LHP:

  • 0.314 team batting average (6th best)
  • 0.320 batting average on balls in play (note: the fact these two metrics are nearly the same in the new rules era indicates serious upside)
  • 0.586 slugging percentage (best in MLB)
  • 0.945 on-base + slugging (best in MLB)
  • 163 wRC+ (best in MLB; +63% vs. Lg Avg)

Yesterday they took a commanding 6-0 early lead vs. Toronto at home, scored 11 total runs and still lost the game. Imagine how pissed off they must be right now.

Enter Patrick Corbin, one of the most fade-able (yea I made that word up) Lefties in the game, and I smell trouble! For him. Consider Corbin the Angels’ punching bag tonight.

He’s surrendered 17 hits in just 9 innings pitched so far! That’s really bad. His 0.405 batting average against ranks 3rd worst out of 126 pitchers with at least 2 starts this year. Advanced stats like expected batting average (which factors in qualify of contact) validate the concern (0.381 xBA = bottom 3% of MLB).

Unfortunately this is pretty obvious stuff, and the market steamed LAA’s First 5 Innings and Team Total lines to the point of hyperinflation today.

I still want action but only for the right price! Here’s where I landed:

$FML's Best Bets

Win 1U (Draftkings): Patrick Corbin O5.5 Hits Allowed x Mike Trout 1+ Hit (-105)

  • Only way I see this missing is if Mike Trout walks twice tonight, which is possible but unlikely given the power threat lurking on deck (Ohtani hits behind Trout, and the analytics era frowns on the idea of walking batters before power hitters).

Risk 0.5U (Draftkings): Mike Trout to Walk (+100)

  • Consider this a mini-hedge that could realistically cash even with a hit! In a perfect world, we cash both.
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