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John Bollman's Bet of the Day - 7/16

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Giants ML @ -130 vs. Brewers

The San Francisco Giants will take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the third game of a four-game series between these teams in San Francisco. The Brewers won the first game in extra innings behind a good Corbin Burnes start, but the Giants won last night’s game on a walk off grand slam after entering the 9th inning down 5-2. Josh Hader picked up the loss and allowed 6 ER in what was probably the worst appearance of his career.

Alex Cobb will be starting for the Giants today and he has really been hit or miss. He has been a lot better at home however, with a 3.62 ERA. He has also put together three very good starts in July. Eric Lauer will be starting for the Brewers and he was good his last couple turns. However, he has really struggled overall this season. He has allowed plenty of walks and home runs and that is a very bad combination against the Giants. The Giants are also the 2nd best team in the league in wOBA against lefties in the past 30 days so I think Lauer will struggle. The Giants have won five of their last seven games now, so they are finally starting to turn it around after probably their worst stretch of the season.

However, the bullpens are a big factor in my decision here. The Giants bullpen honestly hasn’t been that great but they can be good enough with their matchups that they can be effective. The Giants should have all their top relievers available as well. The Brewers bullpen on the other hand is not only worked, but they have also seriously struggled. Josh Hader has allowed runs in five of his last six outings now, and he has only recorded one out in his last two appearances while allowing 9 ER. This could very easily be the worst stretch of his career right now. He has pitched three of the last four days along with Devin Williams, so they both could be unavailable today. If they do pitch, they should be very worked. It will be interesting to see if they do avoid Hader in a save situation today because he has been really bad, but they need him for their stretch run.

The Brewers were only able to score last night after an error extended the inning they scored in. They put on five runs after the error and those were the only runs they scored. I like the Giants to win again today.

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