John Bollman's MLB Bet of the Day - 5/10

The Texas Rangers head home to take on the Kansas City Royals tonight. The Rangers head home after a road trip ended in New York while the Kansas City Royals travel from Baltimore to continue their road trip. The Rangers are actually 4-9 at home this season but I think that will just even out more than anything. The Royals are just 3-8 on the road this season and they have lost 7 of their last 10 games. The Royals are 9-17 on the season and they face the 11-16 Rangers.

Martin Perez is starting for the Rangers, and he has been dominant since starting the season slow. Perez only made it through four innings in his first two starts of the season, however, he has allowed just 1 ER in his last 20 IP across three starts. Those were against a couple good lefty hitting lineups as well. The Rangers have the 19th ranked bullpen in the league backing him up.

The Royals are starting Brad Keller and he has also pitched well to start the season. He has pitched a quality start in four of his five appearances this season. However, I think he is due for a bit of regression, especially after walking three batters and only striking out two in his last start. Keller also has the 3rd worst bullpen in the league backing him up.

Neither of these lineups are hitting particularly well this season, or lately. The Royals are ranked just 24th in the league in wOBA against lefties this season while the Rangers are ranked 3rd worst in the league in wOBA against righties. The Rangers have struggled to hit righties all season ranked 5th worst in the league in wOBA against righties in the past two weeks as well. The Royals have actually hit lefties slightly better in the past two weeks, but they’re still not in the top half of the league.

I originally wanted to take the Rangers ML here but the first game back home after a road trip can be lazy. I actually think both starters will pitch very well and get deep into this game. That’s why I like the under instead. The bullpens are my only worry for both sides, either bullpen is very capable of blowing this under. However, I think both starters should get deep into the game, and I think one of these teams lineups will get shut down, I am just not sure which. Take the under.

John's Bet of the Day



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