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John Bollman’s MLB Bet of the Day - 5/7

The Seattle Mariners will face the Tampa Bay Rays in the third game of a four-game series tonight in Seattle.  The Rays have won each of the first two games of this series and four of the five games overall between these teams this season.  Usually,I don’t like to chase a team just because they are supposed to win at home.  However, when you have other sound rationale and that team is an underdog, I think the risk is right to chase away.  When you really get in trouble is when you start chasing the massive -180 favorites three games in a row because they shouldn’t get swept in a series.  When they’re an underdog, it is a calculated risk.

These starting pitchers in Marco Gonzales and Drew Rasmussen will face each other’s team again.  Rasmussen pitched very well in his first outing against the Mariners, but the hitters should have the advantage the second time around.  Marco Gonzales actually only pitched in the first inning of their first matchup.  So the lineup didn’t actually get to see him.  The Rays have been good against lefties this season.  They are ranked 10th in the league in wOBA against lefties, however they have been a little bit worse than that in the last two weeks.  In the last two weeks, the Rays are ranked just 16th in the league in wOBA against lefties.  The Mariners have been right around the same ranking all season as well.  They are ranked 15th in wOBA against righties in the past two weeks, but 12th overall.

Both bullpens have been very good as well.  The Mariners have been closing by committee so far this season and for some reason, the Mariners decided to go with probably their worst of all the closers yesterday.  It came back to bite them as Paul Sewald gave up three hits including a game losing three run home run by blowing the save.  He will be unavailable tonight after pitching two days in a row so the Mariners top relievers should actually pitch today.  The Rays have a very good bullpen as well, but they are very worked after pitching a couple bullpen games in the past week.

These two teams are both good and I think this will be another close game, so I am taking the value on the underdog.  The Mariners should be able to avoid getting swept at home and I think they break their 5-game losing streak tonight.

Mariners 120 vs. Rays

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