The St. Louis Cardinals face off against the Milwaukee Brewers today in a matchup between two division rivals. These are the two teams we expected at the top of the division before the season started, and these are the two teams at the top of the division mid-way through June. These teams have identical records at 39-31 to lead the NL Central. The next closest team in the division is the Pirates at 28-39. Essentially, one of the two teams playing tonight will end up winning this division.
Eric Lauer hasn’t been great in his past couple starts but he did pitch well against the Cardinals earlier this season. He allowed just two runs in five innings pitched. The only thing that worries me about him is he has struggled with home runs lately. He has allowed 6 home runs in his past two starts combined. Adam Wainwright has been good this season but the two times he was hit hard this season were against the Brewers. He is also much better at home.
The Cardinals were one of the best teams in the league against lefties earlier this season but in the past 30 days, they are ranked fourth worst in the league in wOBA against lefties. This is because they added key bats like Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman, who are both playing very well. However, these lefties won’t perform as well against a lefty. Paul Goldschmidt could also be out of the lineup again after missing yesterday’s game with a back injury. He is currently listed as day to day, and if he is out again, I think the line will only rise.
The Cardinals used all their top bullpen arms in the win yesterday while the Brewers were able to save all theirs. Ryan Helsley threw 31 pitches, and Giovanny Gallegos threw 22 pitches. They should both still be available today, but they shouldn’t be as effective. The Brewers were able to save all their top bullpen arms yesterday. Brad Boxberger, Devin Williams, and Josh Hader will all be available today. The Brewers bullpen has also given up just three earned runs in the past 30.1 innings pitched. All three of those runs were last night in the blowout with the Brewers second string relievers pitching. I like the value on the Brewers at home against their division rivals here.
Brewers -115 vs. Cardinals
