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John Bollman's MLB Bet of the Day - 6/9

Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians take on the struggling Oakland Athletics today in Cleveland. The Guardians have now won seven of their last 10 games and they are 13-9 at home this season. They face the ice-cold Oakland Athletics who have now lost eight straight games and nine of their last 10 games overall. The Athletics are actually much better on the road this season at 13-15 but I don’t think that will matter as much today.

Konnor Pilkington pitched well in just his third start of the season last outing, he didn’t allow a run in five innings pitched. He started the season in the bullpen so he isn’t completely stretched out yet, but he should give the Guardians some good innings. The Guardians also have the third best bullpen in the league backing him up, and the second-best bullpen in the league in ERA since May 1. James Kaprielian is 0-3 with a 6.06 ERA this season and he has struggled with walks, home runs, and getting deep in the game. He has allowed seven home runs this season in just seven starts, and he has walked multiple batters in four of his seven starts. He also hasn’t pitched more than 5.2 innings in a game yet and that is a problem for the Athletics. The Athletics had one of the best bullpens in the league to start the season, but since May 1 they are ranked 23rd in the league in bullpen ERA.

There is also a big mismatch in the lineups and the strength of the lineups. The Guardians are ranked in the top 10 in the league in wOBA against righties. They went cold for a bit during May, but they heated right back up so far in June. The Athletics are much better against lefties, but I think if they do get to Pilkington, he will come out pretty fast and the Guardians will be able to get their top ranked bullpen in the game. The Athletics are ranked 19th in the league in WOBA against lefties in the past month, but they are ranked fourth worst in the league in wOBA against lefties for the entire season.

This line opened at -145 and it has shot all the way up to -175 the last I saw, so I strongly encourage line shopping here. I usually don’t like playing this much juice on a mid-week game, but this is the first game of the series as opposed to a getaway day or travel day, so I would expect it to play out as true as a Friday game.

Take the Guardians at home.

Guardians -170 vs. Athletics

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