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John Bollman’s MLB Bet of the Day - 7/23

Mets vs Padres

The New York Mets take on the San Diego Padres in Game 2 of this three-game series tonight.  The Padres beat the Mets in Game one behind a gem from Yu Darvish.  The Padres were able to score just enough runs off Max Scherzer to ensure the victory.  The Padres have still struggled lately though, they are 9-15 in the last 30 days and 4-7 on the road in that time span.  They are better on the road overall at 28-21 but I don’t expect that to continue throughout the season.  The Padres traveled across the country for this series so the travel could be affecting them today as well.  I like to think the second day after a travel day is usually where you start feeling weary because it is easier to just power through the first day, although I don’t have any data to back that theory up. The Mets also have a home field advantage, they are 28-16 at home this season.​

Chris Bassitt has been very good lately and very good this season.  He is 7-6 with a 3.79 ERA on the season but he has pitched five straight quality starts.  He has also only allowed 3 ER in 12.1 IP in two starts since rejoining the rotation.  The only thing that worries me is one of his blow-up games was against the Padres earlier this season but that was on the road.  That was actually his last bad start, so hopefully he can put that behind him.  Blake Snell is starting for the Padres, and he was hit hard by the Mets when he faced them earlier this season.  He has also been extremely inconsistent, he had six walks in his last start,and he has had multiple walks in every game he has pitched in this season.  The Padres have won just one game this season that Blake Snell has started, they are 1-9.​

The Mets also have a massive bullpen advantage, and that could be pivotal in a game that saw both these teams hit the opposing starter hard first time around.  The Mets bullpen is ranked 4th in the league in ERA in the past 30 days while the Padres bullpen is ranked 5th worst in the league.  The Mets tend to struggle against lefties, and they might not be able to start their newly acquired player in Daniel Vogelbach because of that tonight, but the Padres have struggled against both righties and lefties lately.  I like the Mets at home.

Mets -150 vs. Padres