This is a tough one for me to play because I am a little unsure of how the Phillies want to employ their pitching staff tonight. Bailey Falter is expected to start, but he shouldn’t go more than 3 innings having only pitched just 1 inning since September 30th. My guess is the Phillies piggyback him with Noah Syndergaard while Aaron Nola starts Game 5 tomorrow. The Phillies employed their top bullpen arms yesterday and they were stretched out, so I am not sure if he will go back to the same relievers today with no off days the rest of the series. That being said, I still think the Phillies bats are able to win this game. The Padres only runs last night were a result of Phillies errors, and the Padres had just 1 hit in Game 1. Mike Clevinger allowed five runs in 2.2 IP in his only postseason start against the Dodgers. The Padres struggle against lefties, which is why I think the Phillies are going back to the lefty in Bailey Falter. The Padres bullpen has been great, but they haven’t been giving them a lead. I like the Phillies at home.
John Bollman's Padres @ Phillies Game 4 Player Prop Picks
Phillies -115 ML vs. Padres
Yes Run First Inning -105
Both teams are deadly at the top of the lineup, and both these starters have questions. Clevinger allowed 5 runs in 2.2 IP in his last start while Falter has pitched just one inning since September 30th, so who knows how sharp he is.
Will Myers Under 0.5 Total Bases -105
Will Myers is 3 for 28 this postseason but he should still get the start against the lefty. In his last game, he was pinch hit for as soon as the righty came in, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar in this game. He is 0 for 1 with a strikeout in his career against Falter but that’s just one at bat.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases +135
It seems like Machado is going off every other game, but the Padres really only have a chance if he is hitting. It is very hard to keep Machado quiet for long, and I think he will bounce back from his 0 for night.
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases +125
Harper kept his hit streak going to 8 games last night, but he only recorded a single. He still has multiple hits in five of his last eight games and he is the hottest hitter on both sides. He has never faced Mike Clevinger.
Ha-Seong Kim Under 0.5 Total Bases +140
This is just a good value play. Kim will probably be leading off again against the lefty, and he hits lefties better than he does righties. However, he is 6 for 36 this postseason and he is 1 for 10 in this series. He has never faced Bailey Falter, and he will probably only get 1 or 2 at bats against the lefty with Falter only going three innings.
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