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John Bollman's World Series Game 1 Prediction & Prop Picks - 10/28

World Series Game 1 Prediction:

The Phillies have started strong in each of their three series so far winning the first game while the Astros have yet to lose a game this postseason.

Interestingly enough, these teams matched up for the last series of the season, although playoff spots were set so neither team really cared. Aaron Nola had two really good starts and one bad start this postseason, but I think he will pitch well. Justin Verlander had one good start and one bad start this postseason as well, but I think the Phillies will be able to get to him early. He has also really struggled in the World Series in his career.

I think the Phillies win one of the two games in Houston with their two aces going in Wheeler in Aaron Nola, so I like the value on the Phillies at plus money and we will come back to the Phillies if they lose Game 1.

JB's Game 1 Value Pick: Phillies ML (+140) vs. Astros on DraftKings

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Yes Run First Inning (+125) on DraftKings

  • Justin Verlander has pitched in a World Series before but that doesn’t me he doesn’t get nervous. My guess is he was sitting in the dugout last season wondering if he would even get this chance again.
  • He has also struggled in the first inning of both outings this postseason and the Phillies have started strong. You have to get to these aces early.
  • Aaron Nola has never pitched in a World Series so you know he will be nervous.
  • I think there will be some butterflies on both sides with some missed spots early and adrenaline pumping.

Alex Bregman Over 0.5 Total Bases (-190) on DraftKings

  • Bregman has a hit in 6 of the 7 postseason games so far and he is 10 for 30 overall this postseason.
  • He has never faced Zack Wheeler, only three Astros have so it could take them a turn around the lineup to see his stuff first.

Bryce Harper to Record 2+ Total Bases (+115) on FanDuel

  • Books have finally smartened up a bit and made this line around even, but there’s no reason to get off it.
  • Harper has hits in 10 straight games, all in the postseason. He also has multiple hits in 7 of those 10 games. Most importantly tho, he isn’t walking so he isn’t missing his pitch when he gets it.

Yuli Gurriel Over 0.5 Total Bases (-195) on DraftKings

  • As long as Gurriel’s total base number is at 0.5, we will keep taking it. He is not much of a power hitter, but he gets plenty of hits so this number at 0.5 is important.
  • He is 11 for 30 this postseason with hits in 6 of his 7 postseason games. I think he gets a knock.

Aaron Nola Over 16.5 Outs (-125) on DraftKings

  • Aaron Nola only pitched 4.2 innings in his last outing but he pitched at least 6 innings in 6 straight starts before that.
  • I think he’s gonna pitch much better than last outing and one of those starts was a scoreless appearance in 6.2 innings against the Astros.
  • I think even if he is getting hit a bit, they will want to have him eat up innings.

Top of the 1st Walk (+350) on DraftKings

Bottom of the 1st Walk (+240) on DraftKings

  • It's Game 1 of the World Series, even if you’ve been there before you will still have the butterflies andget the adrenaline pumping.
  • I think we will see some fireworks early, you have to get to these aces early before they settle in, so I think we could see some missed spots and some nibbling in the first inning before they’re settled.
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