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@KeepTheJuice Friday Night MLB Picks - 6/24

Home Run Parlay

Tonight we’re keeping the home run parlay tight with a single game parlay. Let’s start with the Mariners slugger Suarez. Suarez is slightly below pace on his expected home run total for this season, but he’s making a lot of ground in his first season in Seattle. He’ll face Michael Lorenzen starting for the Angels who has had an up and down season so far. They key is to catch him on an off night, like his last start in Seattle last week when he gave up 7 runs over 5 innings. For a long odds bet like home run bets are, I like the hit or miss.

On the Angels side, Taylor Ward might not be the first or even the second choice for a home run. But his value is undeniable tonight. Ward is an underrated power hitter with 11 home runs on the season to date. He hit a tough streak of games without a long ball but broke out of it with a 2 run homer on Monday. Chris Flexen is an ideal opponent tonight for the Mariners. He has a high hard hit rate and has given up 10 home runs already this season. Ward’s odds are underrated tonight so take the long odds parlay tonight for a chance at gold.

Taylor Ward / Eugenio Suarez @ +2200 (Best odds via Caesars Sportsbook)

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Houston Astros (43-26) @ New York Yankees (52-18)

As predicted, this series got off to a blazing start. It felt like a playoff game and very well could be a preview of the ALCS. And what shined above all else were the bats. Right away both teams were scoring, and against some great pitching. Even still, the pitching will get an upgrade tonight with Verlander and Severino taking the mound. But it’s prime time and we know what the MLB wants.

Players and analysts (shoutout Dr Meredith Wills) have noticed that there’s a serious discrepancy in the balls provided to teams this year. And anecdotally the conclusion is that in the nationally broadcast prime time games, they just seem to fly a little farther. You can call it conjecture but we’re looking for any edge we can in the betting lines. So with the number of eyes on this game tonight, there should be plenty of runs tonight.

Yankees/Astros Over 7.5 @ -110 (Best odds via bet365)