@KeepTheJuice21 +1850 Home Run Parlay & Brewers @ Dodgers Prediction - 8/23

Home Run Parlay

Are the Yankees back? That may be an overreaction to 2 wins in a row but beating the crosstown rival Mets certainly means something. Taking 4 runs off Max Scherzer means even more. Facing Taijuan Walker is a task of it’s own but if there’s a Yankee who’s up to it, it’s Aaron Judge. It almost seems unfair putting him in this parlay, especially when the value is low but today is the right day for it. They don’t have a long history against each other, but in 9 plate appearances over the last 5 years, Aaron Judge has hit 3 home runs. That’s a 1 in 3 chance of going deep every time he steps up to the plate. Too good to pass up.

There’s a lot to like for Sean Murphy tonight. The Marlins are on the 5th of 6 game road trip out West and this is the latest start they have had, 8:40 PM ET. The travel and time change matters to these guys and playing late into the night has an impact. The young Pablo Lopez has not had to experience many late starts yet so this could be a factor. Sean Murphy has been one of the hotter hitters in the league as well, with 11 hits and 3 home runs over his last 8 games. In the home park I like the catcher to get a deep ball out tonight.

The Pick: Aaron Judge / Sean Murphy | +1850 at Caesars

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Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers

Call me a flip flopper – I can take it. When two of the three best starters in the NL match up, coming off the home team being shut out, I really like the under.

Corbin Burnes is starting for the Brewers and is an obvious star. He’s one of the very few pitchers who performs better against batters the more times he faces them. Not in a single game (no one does that) but over the course of a season. And his last start came against the Dodgers. It seems counter-intuitive but he’s proven it with his stats.

Tony Gonsolin doesn’t share this trend but he doesn’t buck it either. He’s pretty much been lights out against everyone this year, this month being no exception. He’s surrendered 1 earned run and 7 total over his last 3 starts (18.2 innings).

It’s hard to believe that the Dodgers are shut out again but if there’s someone to do it it’s Corbin Burnes. Just as hard to believe is that the Brewers have a nice offensive performance against Gonsolin like they did last night.

The Pick: Under 7 | -105 at FanDuel

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