@KeepTheJuice21 +1925 Home Run Parlay & ML Pick - 7/22

Chicago Cubs (35-57) @ Philadelphia Phillies (49-43)

In this half of the season, we start to really see where the teams are shaking out. The good teams are going to be locked in and jockeying for playoff position. Every game matters. Then there’s the bad teams. This isn’t the NBA, they aren’t going to tank for a draft pick. But you lose the fire quickly. Players start only caring about their own statistics, worrying about their next contract instead of the current season. Pitchers start to worry about over-using their shoulders and come out quicker.

None of this is specifically about the Cubs, but it's not not about the Cubs. Sitting at 35-57 is not mathematically eliminated but 14 games outside the wild card spot is just about a dagger. On the other hand the Phillies have put themselves firmly in the playoff picture behind excellent seasons from Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm and Zach Wheeler. With the 3rd option Kyle Gibson on the mound tonight, they should be able to manage an average performance at least. Which is all it would take to beat this Cubs squad. The moneyline is showing a lot of value at only -130.

Phillies Moneyline | -130 at Draft Kings

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Home Run Parlay

The home run parlay is back after a brief intermission. If you quit on me I understand but this was always a long term play. And when you quit early you’re only guaranteeing that you lose. We’re starting in the Philly tonight where Kyle Schwarber will try to shake off a tough home run derby performance, which frankly he was robbed in. Schwarber has been a monster at the plate in the first half though and the Cubs bullpen is not strong enough to hold up. Steele is a solid starter but unless he goes 7-8 innings, Schwarber has a great chance.

On the other side of the parlay, we’ve got the young Royals star Bobby Witt Jr. Witt started the season slow but has blown up over the last few weeks. He can hit for average and power but tonight against Rasmussen, the power has a good chance to show. The Rays bullpen is tricky as well because by ERA they look elite, number 6 in the MLB. But by home runs, everything flips. They’ve given up 51 jacks this season, 5th most in the league. Bobby Witt is the right pick on the Royals side for what should be a high scoring game.

FYI I’m looking across all the major betting platforms for the best value for you guys. On the home run parlay, Fan Duel typically has the best odds, but that’s no guarantee so make sure you pay attention to which book is noted in the pick.

Kyle Schwarber / Bobby Witt Jr. | +1925 at FanDuel

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