@KeepTheJuice21 +2015 Home Run Parlay & Spread Pick - 7/25

We’re knocking on the door, getting closer and closer with the home run parlay. And today it starts in Milwaukee at American Family Field (not that Brewers fans will ever call it that). Willy Adames has been the best slugger on the Brewers, with 20 home runs on the season and 2 in the last 4 games. Facing Kyle Freeland tonight he’ll not only have the platoon advantage but against a pitcher who’s prone to giving up deep balls. Freeland is hittable this year and at his home park Adames will know where to go.

The next leg comes from Oakland where the A’s have more or less given up on the season. This series against the red-hot Astros is certainly not going to help morale either. It’s getting to the time of the year when these teams start testing out new young talent, which provides some great betting value. Tonight that’s coming in the form of Adam Oller who will start for the A’s. This isn’t the first start for the rookie but he’s only thrown 27 innings and has given up 8 home runs. The 8.56 ERA is not a great sign either. But picking the right Astro is a little tough, Alvarez is a good pick but not as good value as Pena. Pena has been hot recently, rocking a 6 game hit streak with 2 home runs in the stretch. He’ll have plenty of opportunities against inexperienced pitching tonight which is a great combination.

Willy Adames/Jeremy Pena @ +2015 at Fan Duel

We’re calling this one a don’t overthink it pick. The Dodgers are currently the best team in baseball. No offense intended to Yankees or Astros fans, both of whom have a great argument but the Dodgers have returned most of their team from injury and are rolling, winning 8 in a row HANDILY. In this 8 game streak, they’ve won by a minimum of 2 runs each game and an average margin of about 4 runs. This is also coming against the Giants, Cardinals and Angels, two of which have legitimate playoff ambitions.

Then we have the Nationals, who are fielding suitors for the best young player in baseball so they can start a full rebuild. They’ve won 3 of their last 20 games and are routinely blown out. Yes this line is heavy at -140 but in Los Angeles with Tony Gonsolin starting it would take a true miracle for the Nationals to be remotely in this game. By my model, this line should be closer to -165, making it a great betting value tonight.

Dodgers -1.5 @ -140