@KeepTheJuice21 +2450 Home Run Parlay & Spread Pick - 7/27

This one has swung too far and I’m seeing a ton of value. The Yankees still have the best record in baseball and by far the highest powered offense in the league. The obvious elephant in the room here is that the Yankees are starting Domingo German vs Max Scherzer.

German just recently returned from injury and had a tough first outing against the Astros, giving up 5 runs over 3 innings. Meanwhile Scherzer is campaigning for a Cy Young and ranks top five in WHIP at 0.89. German is still fresh but I would be surprised if his competitiveness didn’t elevate his performance a little tonight. You can at least expect him to improve over his last game.

Scherzer is also great, but he’s not unhittable. Despite giving up only 11 runs in his last 7 outings, he’s given up 38 hits (5.5 per game). That’s the type of statistic that starts to come around and bite you, especially against a deep lineup like the Yankees have. Speaking of the Yankees, Scherzer has not had a ton of success against the team in his limited matchups. In 9 career games he’s given up 24 runs and 52 hits. Even just counting his career with the Nationals, he’s 0-2 over 3 starts with 9 earned runs. This line has come full swing and this year getting the Yankees as an underdog is just too good of a value.

Yankees +1.5 | -135 at Draft Kings

The home run parlay starts where we just left off, in New York. We’re adopting the old mantra, when it rains it pour because Rizzo has hot. He homered last night back to back with Judge and showed great form at the plate. Rizzo has the distinct advantage tonight of knowing Max Scherzer better than any other Yankee. He’s faced the vet 18 times and hits .278 against him for his career, incredibly impressive considering Scherzer’s career BAA of .220 (including rookie and early years too). The old NL Central opponents will face off again tonight for what could be the last time given each of their ages.

The other side of the parlay comes from the bitter rivals, the Red Sox. The Sox host the Guardians tonight where Cal Quantrill will continue his solid season with the start. One thing on the Red Sox side is that Quantrill tends to perform much better at home. All 5 of his losses have come away and his ERA is 0.75 runs higher. J.D. Martinez is the best power hitter on the Sox side with Devers taking some time off. He makes a lot of good contact and against a hard thrower like Quantrill, he could get exactly the power he needs.

Anthony Rizzo / J.D. Martinez | +2450 at Caesars