The big man out of Milwaukee is providing fantastic value today in the +600 range. Of course that’s coming because his opposing pitcher in Andrew Heaney is a lefty, who Tellez has had less success against in his career. That said, he’s been hitting with incredible power this year and has some experience against Heaney. Tellez sat when Heaney started against the Brewers last week and gave up 3 homers in 4 innings, but he did face him for two at bats in 2019 – one of which resulted in a home run. Yes some time has passed since then but Heaney is not a fundamentally different pitcher and Rowdy is actually a better hitter. So I like leaning towards the historical matchup.
Ryan Mountcastle is also getting better than normal value tonight, which is a little more surprising. The young first baseman has 18 home runs this season and 2 in his last 4 games. He also faces Lucas Giolito who has given up 19 home runs on the season and 14 earned runs in his last 4 starts. He barely made it out of the 3rd inning in his last against the Astros where he gave up a home run and 7 ER. But Mountcastle’s HR odds are typically in the mid-to-low 300s, not almost +500 where he is today. Given his recent success, good pitching matchup and friendly home park, the value is too good to pass up.
The Pick: Rowdy Tellez / Ryan Mountcastle | +3883 at Caesars