@KeepTheJuice21 +3883 Home Run Parlay & White Sox @ Orioles Prediction - 8/24

The big man out of Milwaukee is providing fantastic value today in the +600 range. Of course that’s coming because his opposing pitcher in Andrew Heaney is a lefty, who Tellez has had less success against in his career. That said, he’s been hitting with incredible power this year and has some experience against Heaney. Tellez sat when Heaney started against the Brewers last week and gave up 3 homers in 4 innings, but he did face him for two at bats in 2019 – one of which resulted in a home run. Yes some time has passed since then but Heaney is not a fundamentally different pitcher and Rowdy is actually a better hitter. So I like leaning towards the historical matchup.

Ryan Mountcastle is also getting better than normal value tonight, which is a little more surprising. The young first baseman has 18 home runs this season and 2 in his last 4 games. He also faces Lucas Giolito who has given up 19 home runs on the season and 14 earned runs in his last 4 starts. He barely made it out of the 3rd inning in his last against the Astros where he gave up a home run and 7 ER. But Mountcastle’s HR odds are typically in the mid-to-low 300s, not almost +500 where he is today. Given his recent success, good pitching matchup and friendly home park, the value is too good to pass up.

The Pick: Rowdy Tellez / Ryan Mountcastle | +3883 at Caesars

Fade the names! Lucas Giolito was a star last year, but this year he’s been a totally different pitcher. Does he have a nice performance every once in a while? Yes – but they are few and far between. He has a 6.3 ERA in August and rarely performs well against high quality offenses. At 28 years old he shouldn’t be fading down the stretch like this but he undoubtedly is. Meanwhile the Orioles are playing lights out and put themselves 2.5 games back from the wild card. The offense is humming, scoring an average of 7 runs over their last 4 games.

Spenser Watkins is starting for the Orioles amid a really nice stretch of games. In his last 9 starts, Watkins has given up 1 run or fewer 6 times, including a shutout against the White Sox. Ultimately this line is a little confusing – the Orioles were able to hand the Sox pretty handily last night. Last night the Sox started Dylan Cease, by far their best starter (and maybe the most underrated pitcher in the league) against Andrew Voth who is a downgrade to Spenser Watkins. Baseball is unpredictable and anything could happen but this prediction feels right up the middle.

The Pick: Orioles ML | +100 at FanDuel