@KeepTheJuice21 Home Run Parlay & Pick - 7/13

Oakland Athletics (30-59) @ Texas Rangers (40-45)

If you watched last night’s 12 inning, 21 run game between these two you’d think it’s impossible that this one doesn’t go for at least 8 runs. And for a lot of reasons I would agree with you. But don’t get worried if this bet doesn’t hit early.

The best factor in the over is the bullpen fatigue. Neither starter made it past 5 innings last night, which ultimately resulted in 15 total pitchers getting time. Neither team held back either, Brock Burke, Zach Jackson, Dennis Santana, Brett Martin, Lou Trivino and more all got time.

Jon Gray and Paul Blackburn are both upgrades over yesterday’s starters which is why this line is low, but I’m not convinced in either of them. Gray has underperformed for the contract he signed this year, and although it looked like in June he had turned a corner, his last two starts are regressing again. Blackburn has been more consistent but he has a short leash. More often than not, he’ll only get through 4 or 5 innings and then the bullpen we talked about is back into play.

Over 7.5 | +100 at Draft Kings

Home Run Parlay

The home run parlay is coming due and today is going to be the day. We’ve got two massive heavy hitters tonight, starting with the MLB home run leader, Aaron Judge. There isn’t much that hasn’t been said on Judge this season, he’s hit 30 bombs already and we haven’t even hit the all-star break yet. The Yankees are at home again after a 9 game away stretch and looking to stop a brief slide. He’s got the platoon advantage against opposing starter Mike Minor who has been questionable this year and even more so on the road. Judge should be able to kick this one off well.

Jose Ramirez faces the very hittable Lucas Giolito tonight and if anyone on Guardians squad looks good for a home run it’s him. Giolito has given up 16 home runs this season, close to the highest number in the league. He’s undeniably talented but he’s leaving his curve hanging too often and it’s getting crushed. Ramirez also has the platoon advantage and a history against Giolito. He’s hit a home run off him before and bats .286 against him in his career. And that’s including a lot of at bats when he’s been better than he is now.

Aaron Judge / Jose Ramirez | +1220 at Caesars

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