If you watched last night’s 12 inning, 21 run game between these two you’d think it’s impossible that this one doesn’t go for at least 8 runs. And for a lot of reasons I would agree with you. But don’t get worried if this bet doesn’t hit early.
The best factor in the over is the bullpen fatigue. Neither starter made it past 5 innings last night, which ultimately resulted in 15 total pitchers getting time. Neither team held back either, Brock Burke, Zach Jackson, Dennis Santana, Brett Martin, Lou Trivino and more all got time.
Jon Gray and Paul Blackburn are both upgrades over yesterday’s starters which is why this line is low, but I’m not convinced in either of them. Gray has underperformed for the contract he signed this year, and although it looked like in June he had turned a corner, his last two starts are regressing again. Blackburn has been more consistent but he has a short leash. More often than not, he’ll only get through 4 or 5 innings and then the bullpen we talked about is back into play.
Over 7.5 | +100 at Draft Kings
