I’m not ready to start blindly taking overs in prime time nationally broadcast games. But I’m pretty close. At the least, I’m adding some weight to it in the picks model. Luckily this game hit a lot of the right points anyways. This line is low, especially for the star power both of these teams provide. The Dodgers have been struggling, and the offense is a big part of it. In their last series they averaged 4 runs per game against a subpar opponent in the Rockies and at a very hitter-friendly park. But 4 runs apiece is all we need tonight.
The Padres are starting Musgrove who’s been excellent this season but struggled in his last game, giving up 6 runs over 6 innings. I wouldn’t hold it against him but the Dodgers are certainly capable of hitting him. The Dodgers starter Mitch White is average at best but again doesn’t compare well to the lineup he’s facing. The over works out really well here.
Over 7.5 Runs @ -115