@KeepTheJuice21's +2045 Home Run Parlay & Dodgers @ Brewers Prediction - 8/17

We touched on it briefly above but Eric Lauer gives up a lot of home runs. In fact, he trails only 4 starters for the most home runs conceded this year at 22. With this knowledge in hand there are a few great power hitting Dodgers to choose from against Lauer. The best value comes in with Max Muncy. Muncy is hitting his stride after an up and down start but has lit up the month of August. With a .349 average and 5 home runs over 12 games, Muncy has been a huge part of the Dodgers success. Tonight he can keep the streak going and provides solid value.

Kyle Tucker has been a stalwart for the Astros this year. With 21 home runs and a .250 average, he’s been a model of consistency, which is very difficult to do in the MLB. His average has slowly crept up and this month it is the highest it’s been at a very impressive .317. He also has two home runs in the last 7 games and is riding an 8 game hit streak. The contact will undoubtedly be there but getting over the wall is the question. That question is answered by two factors – a hitters park at Guaranteed Rate Field and a hard throwing right hander to oppose and give Tucker the platoon advantage. That’s enough for me to lock in on the big right fielder.

Chuck's Pick: Max Muncy / Kyle Tucker | +2045 at Fan Duel

A nice win for the Brewers in the home park is doing a lot for team morale. But there are few things that will bring down that morale quicker than facing Tony Gonsolin. Gonsolin has been unconscious lately and gets all the support he could ever want. A 14-1 record as a starter is unheard of. It took until July for anyone to get more than 2 earned runs off him. And the run support holds up extremely well. In his 22 starts, the Dodgers score an average of 4.6 runs. That number goes up to 6.0 in his last 9 starts, which the Dodgers have finally been mostly healthy for.

The only concern for this pick would be if the Brewers were pitching Corbin Burnes which they are not. Eric Lauer is serviceable but gives up hard hits and the Dodgers hit very well against lefties. The margin of victory is key here and the Dodgers should be able to run off more than 5, which is what I think it will take to cover the spread tonight.

Chuck's Pick: Dodgers -1.5 | -110 at Fan Duel