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@RyanPropz Braves @ Marlins K Prop Pick - 5/20

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Ryan

Atlanta Braves (17-21) @ Miami Marlins (17-20)

This one feels a little risky after a subpar start to the season for Trevor Rogers, but I think Trevor continues his momentum after his best start of 2022. Last game he struck out 8 in 5.1 innings without walking any Brewers batters. He relied heavily on a nasty slider, and got great results as he had a career high 8 swings and misses against the pitch. I think he has a good night tossing sliders to the very K prone Braves. 

Despite the struggles, Rogers has managed 15 K in 11.1 home innings and 19 K in 16.1 innings at night. Last season home games at night were his strength as well. At home he struck out 68 batters in 55.1 innings, and at night he struck out 108 in 90 innings. He hit this line in 2/3 vs the Braves last season with 7, 4 and 6 K in those games. It is easy to forget right now, but Trevor was an all star last season. Sure, the league can make adjustments to his arsenal, but now it is time for him to adjust and I love his talent to do so. 

The Braves are dead last in K per game at 9.74. They struck out 12 times last game, and have averaged 12 over the last 3. Things get even worse vs left handed pitching. They have 108 K in 375 plate appearances, an insane 28.8% as a team. I think the Marlins big lefty can rack up 6+ K tonight.

Ryan's Pick

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Trevor Rogers Over 5.5. Strikeouts @ -118
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