My heart is beating a little more frequently as I write this one. There is certainly some risk in this play, but I can not resist the value. In the header of the article is a massive detail, “at San Diego”. That is going to be a key factor in this play and why I am willing to take the risk. Let me explain further.
Blake Snell made his first start to the season last week vs the Phillies. He was knocked around and unable to make it through the 4th inning. I do love that he threw 84 pitches though, hinting he should be a full go tonight. The reason I am not discouraged about that start is, it was a road game. Home Snell and road Snell are not the same pitcher. On the road last season, Snell was 3-3 with a 6.12 ERA, he walked 42 batters in 60.1 innings and averaged 1.18 K per inning. At home is an entirely different story. He was 4-3 with a 2.50 ERA, walked 27 batters in 68.1 innings, and averaged 1.46 K per inning. He averaged 4.8 K per start on the road and 8.3 K per start at home. He managed to be Cy Young good and one of the worst pitchers in the game in the same week depending on the locations of his starts. Well tonight, we see the home version of him in a nice matchup.
The Brewers average the 9th most strikeouts per game at 8.86 and coming off a 9 strikeout game. They are 10th in K rate vs lefties over the last 30 days. They are bottom 10 in whiff %, and bottom 5 in chase contact %. Snell has one of the league's most disgusting curveball and slider combinations and I think he makes the Brewers hitters look silly on several occasions. I am gonna go for the value on this one and take him for 7+ strikeouts on FanDuel.