@RyanPropz Marlins @ Rays K Prop Pick - 5/24

Get Nick's latest picks straight to your inbox! 💰
SUBSCRIBE TODAY
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+

Ryan Propz | @ryanpropz

Miami Marlins (18-22) @ Tampa Bay Rays (24-17)

Pablo Lopez has enjoyed a dominant start to the season, but finally looked human last game vs the Nats. He only went 3 innings, allowing 4 hits, 3 walks and 3 earned runs. He only struck out two batters. It was not pretty, but a necessary occurrence for us to get today’s 5.5 line at solid odds. I like Pablo to bounce back tonight vs Tampa.

In the early season, he has struck out 48 in 46 innings (1.04 K per inning). It does get slightly worse on the road so far as he has 19 innings and 17 K (.89 K per inning). While I would like that number to be higher, I am encouraged by his 3 road matchups vs the Nats, Padres, and Giants. All three teams are in the bottom 11 in K% vs righties over the last 30 days. Today’s matchup is a different story. Tampa has a 25.0% K rate vs righties for the season .They are 11th in K per game, and coming off a game with 12 strikeouts. They have the 6th worst whiff% and they are 5th worst in chase contact %. Pablo will have several solid targets in this lineup to send down on strikes. 

Pablo has been elite in many aspects of pitching this season. He is in the 78th percentile in average exit velocity, 84th percentile in hard hit %, and 72nd percentile in walk rate. Batters have a very tough time making solid contact on his pitches, and he does not allow many free passes. His strikeout relevant analytics are just as encouraging. He is in the 73rd percentile in K%, 80th percentile in whiff%, and 89th percentile in chase rate. I think Pablo takes advantage of a free swinging Rays lineup today and racks up 6+ K.

Ryan's Pick

caesars

PABLO LOPEZ OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS @ -133

Get Up To $1,250 on Caesars in Virginia
CLAIM NOW
New users in VA. 21+

Free Bets & Offers


Virginia: Bet $20 & Win $100 in Fee Bets
Promo Code: GET100. New users in VA. 21+.
CLAIM NOW
Bet $5 & Get $200 Instantly in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
$1,000 in Bonus Bets on any Sport in Virginia
New users in VA. 21+
CLAIM NOW
⚡️ Free Picks Newsletter ⚡️
By subscribing you agree to our T&Cs & Privacy Policy and are happy to receive marketing from FlashPicks. 21+
SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Covering a wide range of US sports, we aim to be the ultimate sports betting website. Here you’ll find picks and analysis for the biggest sports across the USA.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537).

21+
800Gambler - Helpline: 1-800 GAMBLER
State Selector
Virginia
Disclaimer

FlashPicks is owned and operated by Checkd Media. Contact [email protected] for more information.

© 2012 - 2023 Copyright FlashPicks. All Rights reserved. v2.8.3 (1)