This is a game I am really excited about from a pitching standpoint. We get two young studs vs K prone teams. Atl is throwing out Spencer Strider for his third start of the year after beginning in the bullpen. While I do think he is a solid option for over K, I will be looking towards his opponent, Roansy Contreras.
Roansy is the 5th best prospect in the Pirates farm system (2nd best pitching prospect), and the 64th best prospect in the league according to MLB.com. His scouting reports show a guy with 3 above average pitches, and his fastball having elite potential. Since coming to the majors, he has been very fastball/slider heavy with sprinkles of his curve and change up. His fastball averages 96.7 MPH, and he has kept batters on their toes by his disgusting slider. Batters are hitting just .103 with a 48.2 whiff% vs that slider, and should be our best friend tonight.
Roansy is sitting in the 78th percentile in K%, 72nd percentile in whiff%, and 88th percentile in chase rate. While the league usually catches up to youngsters after a while, his early goings have been elite. He has a 1.93 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and has 26 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Tonight will be his 4th start of the season. One of the key reasons I am excited is the fact that he worked up to 98 pitches in his last outing. The Pirates do not seem to have any limitations on him so far (which I am sure will come later in the season). For now, he is fully stretched out and ready to go.
As I have written several times throughout this season, the best matchup a pitcher can have for K is the Braves. They average the most strikeouts per game, they have the 2nd most strikeouts vs righties, they have the most strikeouts at home, and the second most strikeouts in night games. They have the worst contact % on pitches in the zone, the highest whiff% overall, the 5th highest chase rate, and the 9th worst contact % on chased pitches. Roansy’s biggest hurdles will be keeping their offense off the bases, but if he can get 5 innings he should be able to pick up 6 K and maybe even more.
Roansy Contreras Alt strikeouts 6+ Fanduel Sportsbook +144
