@RyanPropz Pirates @ Padres K Prop Pick - 5/28

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Ryan Dolan | @ryanpropz

Pittsburgh Pirates (18-26) @ San Diego Padres (29-16)

Joe Musgrove will look to continue his terrific start to the season tonight vs his former team, the Pirates. It is a solid matchup for him to do so. The Pirates really struggle offensively. Joe should work deep into this game, and I am looking for him to pick up 7+ K along the way. 

Joe is 5-0 with a 1.90 ERA (4th in the league) and .94 WHIP (8th in the league). He has been even better at home where he has a 1.80 ERA and allowing opposing batters to hit .183 in 20 innings. In those 20 innings, he has picked up 21 strikeouts and only walked 2 batters. He has elite control of his 6 pitch arsenal. He is in the 89th percentile in BB%, while sitting in the 65th percentile in whiff%, 93rd percentile in chase rate, and 64th percentile in K%. While he only sits around 1 K per inning, I am encouraged by his advanced strikeout data as well as the fact that he has gone at least 6 innings in each start. 

The Pirates average the 11th most strikeouts per game at 8.68, and have struggled even more lately with 9.67 K per game over their last 3. For the season, they have a 25.2% K rate vs righties. Joe has faced off against them once so far this season at Pitt, and struck out 8 Pirates hitters. The Pirates have the 4th worst batting average, 5th worst OBP, and 4th worst slugging %. I like Joe to take advantage of a weak offense and pick up 7+ strikeouts tonight.  

Ryan's K Prop



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