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@RyanPropz Saturday MLB Pick - 4/9

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Ryan

Pittsburgh Pirates (0-1) @ St. Louis (1-0)

Two days into the season we have explored strikeout props, first five inning results, and team totals. Let's add another market to the mix, total bases. 

I doubt you will see me target many Pirates players in this market, but I found enough stats to catch my attention. The Pirates best hitter, Bryan Reynolds, is set up nicely to have himself a solid afternoon. We do not have a huge sample size vs the opposing pitcher, Mikolas, but I like that he is 6/18 with 3 doubles vs him in his career. Three other areas I look into when determining total base plays average vs the handedness of the opposing pitcher, home/road splits, and day/night splits. Bryan checked every box last year:

  • .293 vs righties with 45 extra base hits (393 at bats)
  • .314 on the road with 33 extra base hits (277 at bats)
  • .316 in day games with 22 extra base hits (212 at bats)

Miles Mikolas battled forearm issues for much of the last several years, so we do not have a massive sample size that we’d see from most pitchers but there are not many impressive statistics to speak of. Last season he had a 4.23 ERA (9 starts) and a 1.21 WHIP (walks/hit per inning pitched). He got rocked in his 10 innings in day games last season and that trend extends back to his last full healthy season in 2019. He poses a great matchup for Bryan Reynolds to accumulate 2+ total bases this afternoon.

Ryan's Pick

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Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 Total Bases @ +115
TAIL RYAN HERE
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