Ahhh good old Sunday afternoon. Another long, beautiful day of baseball. Chicago is throwing another stud pitcher on the mound in Lucas Giolito vs the Rays today. Lucas does have a tendency to get hit around a little on the road, but his strikeout numbers are hard to ignore.
Lucas currently has 59 K in 42.1 innings, an impressive 1.40 K per inning. On the road, he has racked up 40 K in 23.1 innings, an even more impressive 1.74 per inning. This will be his 3rd start in day games, so far he has picked up 15 K in 8 innings, 1.88 per inning. Lucas does often throw around 100 pitches per game, but is not super efficient as he averages 5.25 innings per start. He is a nibbler of the strike zone and wastes many pitches trying to get people to chase which results in long innings often, but the trade off is insane strikeout numbers. He currently sits in the 95th percentile in K%, 95th percentile in whiff%, and 64th percentile in chase rate. He has a 4 pitch arsenal, all of which are disgusting. His 4 seamer has a 29.7 whiff%, changeup has a 44.6 whiff%, slider has a 38.0 whiff%, and his curve has a 31.3 whiff%.
Tampa is one of the league’s best targets. They struck out 11 times yesterday. They are 5th in K% vs righties over the last 30 days. They have the 3rd most K in the league vs righties. They are 7th in the league in strikeouts at home. Current Rays have also struggled vs Lucas in their career, as they have a combined 25% K rate. I have a hard time imagining this line not moving soon, so if you miss out on the 5.5 line, I would happily take the 6.5 line at plus odds.