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@RyanPropz Yankees @ Tigers K Prop Pick - 4/21

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New York Yankees (7-5) @ Detroit Tigers (4-7)

I take no joy in backing a Yankee’s player, but this one was too intriguing to sit out. Jordan Montgomery only has 6 K in 2 starts but I think he has his break out this afternoon against the Tigers.

Jordan has hit over 4.5 K in 59% of starts dating back to last season. Of course, we must consider pitch counts being more strict than last year for now. However, after throwing 71 pitches in a solid outing vs the O’s last time out, I think Jordan should stretch out closer to the 80ish pitch range. I think that is all he will need vs Detroit.

Jordan averaged 1.03 strikeouts per inning last season, so I’m not too concerned with this seasons low K rate two starts in. He also averaged over 1 K per inning in away games and day games. The key stat that caught my eye in this one is Detroits early season struggles vs lefties. They have 27 strikeouts in 82 at bats vs Lefties (33%). Last seasons data supports these struggles as being more than fluke as they struck out 27% of the time last season and returned a similar lineup this season.

I think Jordan can go 5 innings here and pick up 5 K sweat free this afternoon.

Ryan's Pick

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Jordan Montgomery over 4.5 strikeouts @ -104
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