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Atomic's NBA Best Bet: Suns @ Nuggets - 5/9


Atomic is back with an NBA player prop pick as the Denver Nuggets host the Phoenix Suns in a pivotal game 5!

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Game 5: Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets

Going to keep this one simple; this is just a really nice play honestly.

Jokic has managed to grab 15,18,19,16,17,4 rebounds in his last 7 games against the Suns. He had an anomaly game last game where he got just 4 rebounds - it’s worth noting Jokic had just 9 rebound chances all game he was doubling a lot but he has been doing this for the series. I do expect Denver to also adjust a bit especially after losing 2 in a row I think they keep trying to force others to beat them which should allow tons of rebound chances for the joker.

Phoenix is allowing the #8 most rebounds per game to centers in the last 30 days (+1.17) when compared to average so when you consider that Phoenix is already positionally allowing a ton of rebounds to big men and Jokic has literally had 15+ in his last 6/7 vs the Suns it’s just an amazing matchup. Yes, with the lower rebound chances last game it can be odd but I’m just going back to ol' reliable here.

We see Jokic have goose eggs like this in terms of rebounding every now and then as mentioned earlier we should see adjustments and honestly it was just a really high scoring game making it hard for him to even get the chance to get a rebound. The Suns shot 56% from the field and 45% from 3. The Nuggets secured just 32 team rebounds last game and Porter had 10 in the last 3 games the Nuggets have averaged 47 rebounds per game excluding this previous one which is almost 50% more rebounds so this really just seems like a big anomaly in general. I think we go back to lower scoring games in this one especially considering Denver is at home.

Atomic's Pick

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(0.5u) Nikola Jokic over 13.5 rebounds @ -120
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