@BrianVsTheBooks' Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers Player Prop Pick - 11/9

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Nikola Jokic vs Indiana Pacers

On the surface, this is a prop that has only hit in 4/10 games, yet juiced to the over. However, I still think this can be a buy-low spot for Jokic, who has the potential to have a triple-double in any given game. This can especially be the case in this matchup, as the Pacers are currently playing at the fifth-highest pace in the league. The game over/under is set at 235.5 and more possessions set up a lot of chances for rebounds and assists. 

Jokic is coming off two games against the Spurs, who have been good at limiting rebounds to some top centers. Over the last two weeks, Rudy Gobert was held to 9.33 rebounds in three games against the Spurs, Nikola Vucevic was held to 5, and Jokic was held to 6 and 8. In those two games against the Spurs, Jokic averaged just 10 rebound chances. This is way down from his 17.8 season average coming into those matchups.

Jokic also seems to take pride in his rebounding. Between this season and last, Jokic has failed to get 10+ rebounds in 13 games but is averaging 13.62 rebounds in the following games. These back-to-back games against the Spurs are the first time in that span he has not seen 10 rebounds in consecutive games. I think we see an emphasis from Jokic on the glass here.

As for the assists,  I already mentioned how much pace plays into RA props with the extra possessions. The Pacers are also allowing the seventh most assists in the league at 26.9 per game. This benefits Jokic more than anyone as he is averaging 16 potential assists per game, which is double that of Jamaal Murray. As an undersized team, it is likely the Pacers double or even triple Jokic and look to get the ball out of his hands.

Brian's Pick

draftkings

NIKOLA JOKIC O20.5 REBOUNDS/ASSIST @ -115

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