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Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Predictions

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Thu 03 Nov 2022 10.27

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IND

-115

+10.5

ATL

-105

-10.5

NBA | Sat 03/25, 9:00 PM

BKN

-110

+5.5

MIA

-110

-5.5

NBA | Sun 03/26, 12:00 AM

MIL

-110

+2.5

DEN

-110

-2.5

NBA | Sun 03/26, 1:00 AM

PHI

-105

-1.5

PHX

-115

+1.5

NBA | Sun 03/26, 2:00 AM

UTA

-110

+9.5

SAC

-110

-9.5

NBA | Sun 03/26, 2:00 AM

NOP

-110

+4.5

LAC

-110

-4.5

NBA | Sun 03/26, 2:30 AM

Two teams with identical records clash tonight in the Western Conference as the Denver Nuggets hit the road and travel to Oklahoma City to face off with the Thunder. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 pm ET live on NBA TV.

This will be already the 2nd time the Nuggets and Thunder meet this season, Denver already beat OKC 122-117 in a game played at Ball Arena 10 days ago. Since then the Nuggets have split their next 4 games and are coming off a 121-110 loss against the LA Lakers. The defense has been a major problem, they were able to string together a pair of games in which they held opponents to 101 and 99 points, but reverted back to their old habits in the next one and allowed the Lakers to drop 121 on them.

This team is still building chemistry, which is understandable considering they have their two main pieces in Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back into the line-up after long lay-offs. What is encouraging is the fact that they rank in the top 10 both in field goal and three-point percentage, so the offense is clicking early on in the season. Against tonight’s opponent they’ve won 14 of the last 17 meetings, including 6 of the last 8 played on the road.

For a team that was expected to tank this season and lose as many games as possible, the Oklahoma City Thunder are doing quite well with a 4-3 record after 7 games played. The play of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a particular highlight, he is averaging 31.5 points per game on almost 52% shooting from the field and also dishing out 6.8 assists per game. This team has been a good bet to cover the spread in home games lately doing so in 5 of their last 6 outings. For the 7th time this season they’ll enter a game as underdogs as the line has been set at +6 against the Nuggets tonight. In their first 3 games in that role this season they are 3-3 SU. The good news is they don’t have any injury worries at the moment, so it should be a competitive game, just like the one in Denver which they lost by 5 points.

I’m having issues trusting the Nuggets right now, they beat a team like Utah by 16 points, but then the next game they fall on the road against the winless Lakers. Until I see some consistency from them, I’m betting on the opposing team. Let’s go with the Thunder to cover at home here.

Only 5 teams in the entire league have a worse defensive rating than the Nuggets have at 115.7. They rank in the bottom 10 of opponent points off turnovers, opponent 2nd chance points as well as opponent points in the paint, highlighting some of their main weaknesses on that end. It’s no surprise that the over has cashed in 9 of their last 13 games overall and in 5 straight played in the month of November.

If we look at just head-to-head meetings against the Thunder then the over has landed in 2 of the 3 most recent meetings with the two team averaging 228.3 points per game. With tonight’s game being on national TV, I think we’ll see them both put in an extra effort on the offensive end to make the game as entertaining as possible. We just witnessed them combine for 239 points in the game played 10 days ago in Denver, I expect a similar total in tonight’s game as well. Back the points.