Eli's +650 NBA Wednesday SGP - 11/1

"Eli, wasn’t your last article on this website also on a Pacers game?"

Why yes, yes it was. Leave me alone. Not only am I a die-hard Pacers fan, but they are also one of the fastest paced offenses in basketball. They’re currently playing at a pace of 106.0, which is good for fourth in the NBA. When we consider that of the three games they’ve played this season, one was against the Bulls (19 th in pace), and another against the Cavs (28 th in pace), I think there’s a real chance the Pacers end up as the first team to end the season with a pace above 108.5, which hasn’t been done since the 1990-91 Denver Nuggets (113.68).

Why does pace matter? I’m glad you asked.

Pace is a measure of possessions per 48 minutes. This means in games the Pacers have participated in this season, there have been an average of 106 possessions. Since every possession essentially ends with either points, a rebound, or a turnover, this means there are 106 possessions to help us in our prop bets.

Now before you all call me a homer, I’m not betting on a Pacers player here. I’m betting on two guys playing against them tonight; Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis.

Last season, Tatum absolutely cooked the Indiana Pacers. In three games, he ended with 41, 31, and 34 points. This was before Benedict Mathurin was a permanent starter for the Pacers. I love Benny, but I’m not sure he could guard me, and I haven’t played competitive basketball since middle school (and even then I wasn’t good). There are 140 NBA starters who have played at least three games this season, and Bennedict Mathurin has the 16th worst defensive rating. I do expect them to start with Obi Toppin (about a league average defender) on Tatum, but it feels like the primary goal of the Celtics offense tonight is to set screens until Mathurin has to switch onto Tatum.

Now let’s talk about Kristaps Porzingis. Reminder: a higher pace leads to more shots, which leads to more rebounds. The Pacers let Vucevic grab 17 rebounds and Mobley get 14, but that’s not the worst of it. MAX STRUS, who is a career 2.8 rebounds per game guy, recorded 11 against the pacers just four nights ago. Kristaps has played 32 minutes or more against the Pacers 6 times since 2020 and had ten or more rebounds in four of them. This does include some games against a Pacers team that included Domas Sabonis, who could actually give Kristaps some trouble on the glass.

I’ve said all of that to say this:

A same game parlay on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tatum to score 30 points and Kristaps Porzingis to record 10 or more rebounds is +650. That feels like pretty good value to me.