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@KeepTheJuice - Tuesday NBA Picks - 1/25

Dallas Mavericks (27-20) vs. Golden State Warriors (34-13)

This pick seems a little counterintuitive at first glance. The Warriors and Mavs have both averaged some of the lowest point total games this season. Mavericks games average 209 points away from home and Warriors games average 211 points at home, no coincidence where this line is coming from. But those average are skewed based on player availability. The Warriors will be without Draymond Green, losing a significant defensive presence. The Mavs will also have both Luka and Porzingis on the court; when both of those two are playing, the offensive output goes way up. I think this one should be in the range of 215-220 points tonight, making the over a big play.

Best Bet

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Total Points Over 211 @ -106

Denver Nuggets (24-21) vs. Detroit Pistons (11-35)

The Nuggets players start a long road trip (6 away games in a row) tonight in Detroit. It’s pretty clear that they are the better team but can they cover a large spread. They played a close game with Detroit in the last one but I expect they’ll be coached up a little better tonight. In the two 2 game series the Nuggets have played this year, the point margin improved in Game 2 by 7 and 27 points. That tells me they’re a well-coached team that makes adjustments. If they continue the trend tonight, they will win by a better margin than the 6 points from Sunday night and cover this spread.

Best Bet

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Denver -7.5 @ -110
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