@RyanPropz Sunday NBA Cheat Sheet Pick - 3/13

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Ryan Dolan | @ryanpropz

Philadelphia 76ers (40-25) @ Orlando Magic (18-50)

What an ugly game the Sixers had against the Nets. Harden’s revenge game did not go as planned as he shot 3-17 and the Nets thrashed the 6ers by 29 points. The Sixers will be looking to shake that off as they travel to Florida tonight to face the Magic. After 4 straight games of 25 or more points to start Harden’s Philly career, he has since had 2 stinkers. I am looking to take advantage of what I am thinking is an overreaction line.

It is not often we see Harden at 21.5, so I will jump on it. I don't often worry about bad shooting performances as long as the volume is there. NBA players will always have large variance in scoring output, so I love a buy low spot as long as the shots have been there. Harden has taken 32 shots and 12 threes over these two games, good enough volume for me. What I am intrigued by is he only got to the line 8 times total in the last 2 after having 9 or more in each of his first 4 games with the 76ers. I think Harden will get back to his usual ways and try to take advantage of a young Magic team and live at the line tonight.

He should not have too much trouble getting open looks either. Orlando is 20th in points allowed, 22nd in three pointers allowed, 21st in defensive efficiency, and they play at the 10th fastest pace. Over the last 30 days, the Magic have allowed the 8th most points to point guards. The main concern is a blowout but Orlando has played the Sixers tough 3 times now, thanks to the help of Mo Bamba who turns into Steph Curry when he faces his friend, Joel Embiid (Mo Bamba had 7 threes last time these teams met). It is not impossible the Sixers come in and blow off some steam vs the young Magic, but with a line this low for Harden, I will look to take advantage. 

RYAN'S CHEAT SHEET PICK

fanduel

JAMES HARDEN OVER 21.5 POINTS @ -118

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